Author Topic: Non Communist Cuba  (Read 2484 times)

Offline GTX_Admin

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Non Communist Cuba
« on: May 06, 2019, 04:41:27 AM »
Scenario here is a non Communist Cuba.  This could come either via:

  • The Cuban Revolution never occurring
  • The Bay of Pigs invasion actually working
  • Perhaps during his 1959 visit to the USA, Castro is actually able to strike a relationship  with Eisenhower/Nixon.  Perhaps instead of viewing him as a threat they decide to take Cuba under their wing , agreeing that Batista was bad and good to be removed but that they could still work together with no need to go full Communist
  • other...

Regardless or the reason, what might a non Communist Cuba look like and what equipment might they have?  Could we perhaps see Cuban F-86s or maybe Hawker Hunters?  Perhaps later on Mirage IIIs and/or F-5s?
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Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2019, 04:43:58 AM »
I donít actually see it getting this far but one never knows...
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Online elmayerle

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2019, 05:17:04 AM »
I think F-5's more likely than F-4's in the Sixties and I suspect the F-86 and Hunter might battle it out for an earlier order.

Online kerick

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2019, 10:13:47 AM »
I would go with Cuban F-5s without a doubt. Any number of choices beforehand, F86, maybe F-84. After that hard to say, maybe eventually F-16s. Lots of used stuff, A-4M Skyhawks from Kuwait or Kahu from NZ.

Offline Old Wombat

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2019, 05:37:36 PM »
If the Cubans have been taken under the US wing, I doubt you'd see much (if any) non-US hardware in the mix.

However, if they were NATO-aligned or non-aligned there is a much greater scope for a broader range of hardware; German/French armour, British/US/French aircraft, US/Spanish/Italian warships, British/Swedish submarines, etc., etc.
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Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2019, 03:32:46 AM »
I was looking at the likes of Venezuela or Brazil as potential models for what they might end up with hence the F-5, maybe Mirage IIIs.  I like the idea of A-4s as well.  Maybe also either T-37- and/or T-38s?  F-16 or extended life F-5s or even F-20 come Ď80s and beyond.

Another option might be for something like the F-8 transferred from USN/USMC stocks.

Agree the F-4 is very unlikely but hey, it was a cool profile ;)

Re the Hunter, I mainly included it as a follow on to their real world Sea Furies.

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Offline apophenia

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2019, 05:31:10 AM »
Cool concept! I love the '1959 visit' scenario.

How about the US provides Sabres while the UK tops up Sea Fury stocks as a good-will gesture? Later on, in the '60s, the Hawkers are replaced in the strike role by surplus USN A-4s.
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Offline Rickshaw

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2019, 07:19:52 AM »
Scenario here is a non Communist Cuba.  This could come either via:

  • The Cuban Revolution never occurring
  • The Bay of Pigs invasion actually working
  • Perhaps during his 1959 visit to the USA, Castro is actually able to strike a relationship  with Eisenhower/Nixon.  Perhaps instead of viewing him as a threat they decide to take Cuba under their wing , agreeing that Batista was bad and good to be removed but that they could still work together with no need to go full Communist
  • other...

Having studied the Cuban Revolution during my third year and my honours year at Uni:

1) The Cuban Revolution never occurring

Highly unlikely.  Cuba was a very rebellious place.   It had, on average about a large rebellion every five years.  Castro and Guavera once went to hide in a peasant's cottage in Oriente' Province and the peasant welcomed them and dug out from under his bed copies of Marx and Lenin.  To Castro, this was evidence that their "Foco Theory" (Focus theory) of revolution was working and the peasants were becoming radicalised. Orenite' province had actually had a rebellion five years earlier.  The Foco Theory was rubbish of course and it got Guavera killed in the end in Bolivia.

2) The Bay of Pigs invasion actually working

Doubtful.  Without direct US involvement it was undermanned and under equipped to achieve what it wanted.  The landing place was also a deathtrap.  The Bay of Pigs was surrounded by swamp, which meant containing any force landing there was relatively easy.  The Cuban people genuinely did and still do back the Fidelistas, much to Washington's chagrin. 

3) Perhaps during his 1959 visit to the USA, Castro is actually able to strike a relationship  with Eisenhower/Nixon.  Perhaps instead of viewing him as a threat they decide to take Cuba under their wing , agreeing that Batista was bad and good to be removed but that they could still work together with no need to go full Communist.

Doubtful.  After his meeting with then Vice President Nixon, Nixon declared that Castro "was the nearest thing he'd ever met to a Communist!"   Washington was still reeling from the reign of Tail Gunner Joe McCarthy and his House UnArmerican Committee hearings.    Neither Nixon or Eisenhower were interested in Castro and his then mild reforms.  They were under the wing of the Sugar corporations and of course there was the insidious influence of the Mafia in the background which largely controlled the gambling and prostitution in Cuba.  They didn't like Bastista but accepted that, in the words of FDR, "he may be a son-of-a-bitch but least he's our son-of-a-bitch!"  Interestingly, Batista wasn't "ousted" from Havana, he just decided to give up and left, going back to Florida to take up his career as a Real Estate Agent again.  He and his cronies toasted the New Year and just got on a plane and flew to Florida.

Quote
other...

About the only really feasible option IMO.  Fidel and the boys could have been wiped out several times.  That would have left the revolution basically leaderless.   It could have been because of disease, it could have been because of Government troops.   Without a leader, the revolution wouldn't have happened.

Quote
Regardless or the reason, what might a non Communist Cuba look like and what equipment might they have?  Could we perhaps see Cuban F-86s or maybe Hawker Hunters?  Perhaps later on Mirage IIIs and/or F-5s?

I could see Cuba acquiring US aircraft and equipment, far more than under Batista who didn't really trust the US's motives.   F-86s leading to F-100s perhaps to F-5s and finally to F-16s.   If the post-Batista government wanted to strike a more pro-Western Europe stance, I could see Hunters followed by Mirages.   I really cannot see much use for a heavy fighter, like the F-4.   Cuba is a smallish island with no real natural enemies.   You'd need a Communist bogeyman being created elsewhere in the Caribbean.   

Online elmayerle

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2019, 07:33:04 AM »
How about a real "out there" option where a young Fidel gets optioned by a US baseball team and goes on to become a star player, essentially removing him from Cuba?  For extra irony, he ends up playing for the NYC Yankees.

Online kerick

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2019, 10:20:58 AM »
How about a real "out there" option where a young Fidel gets optioned by a US baseball team and goes on to become a star player, essentially removing him from Cuba?  For extra irony, he ends up playing for the NYC Yankees.

And he makes a bunch of money and becomes what he fought against?

I didn't know Batista ended up in Florida. Learn something new every day.

Offline Logan Hartke

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2019, 10:21:34 PM »
The Cuban people genuinely did and still do back the Fidelistas, much to Washington's chagrin. 

As someone that has been to Cuba and spoken with many, many people in the cities and the countryside while I was there, I would disagree with this generalization in the present tense.

Cheers,

Logan

Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2019, 06:00:06 AM »
Repost of Alex's work:

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Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2019, 07:05:21 AM »
A Mirage III or F-100 or F-5 in this sort of scheme would be cool:




As would an A-4 in this sort of scheme:

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Offline Geoff

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Re: Non Communist Cuba
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2019, 02:41:22 AM »
How about - Fidel's forces get killed - very nearly happened but a false flag attack on Gitmo gets a strong US peace keeping force established on the island.


Alternatively the island becomes partitioned like Cyprus and the US/UN act as security for the government controlled area and the revolutionaries have an area under their control. Has the possibility of turning into a Vietnam type unpleasantness. :o