Scenario here is a non Communist Cuba. This could come either via:
- The Cuban Revolution never occurring
- The Bay of Pigs invasion actually working
- Perhaps during his 1959 visit to the USA, Castro is actually able to strike a relationship with Eisenhower/Nixon. Perhaps instead of viewing him as a threat they decide to take Cuba under their wing , agreeing that Batista was bad and good to be removed but that they could still work together with no need to go full Communist
- other...
Having studied the Cuban Revolution during my third year and my honours year at Uni:
1) The Cuban Revolution never occurring
Highly unlikely. Cuba was a very rebellious place. It had, on average about a large rebellion every five years. Castro and Guavera once went to hide in a peasant's cottage in Oriente' Province and the peasant welcomed them and dug out from under his bed copies of Marx and Lenin. To Castro, this was evidence that their "Foco Theory" (Focus theory) of revolution was working and the peasants were becoming radicalised. Orenite' province had actually had a rebellion five years earlier. The Foco Theory was rubbish of course and it got Guavera killed in the end in Bolivia.
2) The Bay of Pigs invasion actually working
Doubtful. Without direct US involvement it was undermanned and under equipped to achieve what it wanted. The landing place was also a deathtrap. The Bay of Pigs was surrounded by swamp, which meant containing any force landing there was relatively easy. The Cuban people genuinely did and still do back the Fidelistas, much to Washington's chagrin.
3) Perhaps during his 1959 visit to the USA, Castro is actually able to strike a relationship with Eisenhower/Nixon. Perhaps instead of viewing him as a threat they decide to take Cuba under their wing , agreeing that Batista was bad and good to be removed but that they could still work together with no need to go full Communist.
Doubtful. After his meeting with then Vice President Nixon, Nixon declared that Castro "was the nearest thing he'd ever met to a Communist!" Washington was still reeling from the reign of Tail Gunner Joe McCarthy and his House UnArmerican Committee hearings. Neither Nixon or Eisenhower were interested in Castro and his then mild reforms. They were under the wing of the Sugar corporations and of course there was the insidious influence of the Mafia in the background which largely controlled the gambling and prostitution in Cuba. They didn't like Bastista but accepted that, in the words of FDR, "he may be a son-of-a-bitch but least he's
our son-of-a-bitch!" Interestingly, Batista wasn't "ousted" from Havana, he just decided to give up and left, going back to Florida to take up his career as a Real Estate Agent again. He and his cronies toasted the New Year and just got on a plane and flew to Florida.
other...
About the only really feasible option IMO. Fidel and the boys could have been wiped out several times. That would have left the revolution basically leaderless. It could have been because of disease, it could have been because of Government troops. Without a leader, the revolution wouldn't have happened.
Regardless or the reason, what might a non Communist Cuba look like and what equipment might they have? Could we perhaps see Cuban F-86s or maybe Hawker Hunters? Perhaps later on Mirage IIIs and/or F-5s?
I could see Cuba acquiring US aircraft and equipment, far more than under Batista who didn't really trust the US's motives. F-86s leading to F-100s perhaps to F-5s and finally to F-16s. If the post-Batista government wanted to strike a more pro-Western Europe stance, I could see Hunters followed by Mirages. I really cannot see much use for a heavy fighter, like the F-4. Cuba is a smallish island with no real natural enemies. You'd need a Communist bogeyman being created elsewhere in the Caribbean.