Modelling > Scenarios

Germany successful in conquering Russia in 1941

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GTX_Admin:
Folks,

A while back, I read an interesting book called "Hitler's Panzers East: World War II Reinterpreted", by Russell H.S. Stolfi.  This isn't so much an alt history but rather a study into whether Germany could have successfully concluded Operation Barbarossa and thus have defeated the USSR in late 1941.  Despite not being the most well written book I've read, the author puts forward a very convincing case that this was indeed very possible and goes through many aspects and in doing so, discounts many of the typical counterarguments put up (e.g. the Germans left the attack too late due to Greece etc; the Germans underestimated the Soviets and didn't stockpile enough supplies etc.).  See here for more info on the book.

Anyway to the point of this thread.  What if, this did in fact happen and in fact in perhaps their most stunning vistory to date, Germany successfully concluded Operation Barbarossa in late 1941 (Moscow falling some time around the end of August, Leningrad during September; the Communists virtually wiped out (assumes that the people would have revolted against the Stalin dictatorship sometime after Moscow falls) and the Wehrmacht subsequently securing the majority of European Russia through to the Volga before the Winter of '41/'42 sets in.  What would be the implications, next steps and most importantly, model options?  Remember, that this would see virtually the whole of Mainland Europe under Axis control with resulting huge resources and no need to fight 2 fronts.

I suspect Great Britain would have been forced to reconsider their position and conclude a peace treaty of sorts with the result that WWII (at least as far as Europe was concerned) would have ended in late 1941/early 1942.  I'm interested in your thoughts/additions etc.

GTX_Admin:
I have also posted a potential story timeline based upon this scenario here.

elmayerle:
I think a lot would depend on whether or not Imperial Japan attacks the US and, if they do, whether Nazi Germany honors their pact and declares war against the US.  If the US is either not officially fighting, as hard as FDR was trying to get the US into the European war, I could see Britain seeking a negotiated peace.  If it's just the US vs. Japan in the Pacific, I can see a watchful US presence in the Atlantic, but the bulk of US forces switching to the Pacific.  If, after defeating the Soviet, Germany decides to declare on the US, you're going to see a very long and very bloody war and the reason for developing the B-36 (striking continental Europe from the US) might just come to pass.  I could see cases where you'd end up with a power block in the Americas and one in the rest of the world and neither able to totally defeat the other.

GTX_Admin:
I agree - in the story timeline I have posted a link to above I have assumed Japan still attacks Pearl Harbour and Germany still declares war on the USA.

However as an alternative, if Germany essentially defeats the USSR by roughly mid to late November (sure there is some fighting still going on, but the remnants of the Soviet Army are in disarray and the Communist leadership on the run and quickly denouncing that they believed in any such thing), Japan might change its plans and instead of attacking Pearl Harbour on 7 December 1941, they instead decide to launch a fresh attack against Russia in the East thus hoping to capitalise on the confusion and gain much needed resources - this maybe happening in early 1942.  Without any coordinated command system or Government still in Moscow, they believe they have a good chance of success.  The result of this is that the USA is not attacked and thus does not enter the War against Germany.  What's more, with Europe fully under Axis control, Britain certainly doesn't look worthy of going to war in support of.

In such a situation, I think the USA would have more or less accepted the new reality (at least for the medium term).  I don't think the emphasis on nuclear weapons would have been necessarily there though, especially if a peace treaty had been signed with Britain and therefore there being no war economy or push.  Maybe the B-36 goes ahead but for conventional bombing/anti-ship patrol into the Atlantic?  Germany develops a more powerful navy to better counter the USA including more capital ships/Carriers with associated aircraft?  Japan has Zeros etc in Winter camouflage?

What else???

elmayerle:
Yes, if the timing permitted it, a Japanese push into the "Northern Resource Area" (Siberia et al.) instead of the "Southern Resource Area" (the islands running south east from southeast Asia) could see Japan aborting the attack on Pearl Harbor to conserve resource for the more useful push.  I could see the US adjusting to such a situation and it would be interesting to watch what ensued after that in India and Africa.  Given the area opposed to them, I could see the US making an effort to develop a truly pan-American power block to counter-balance the growing eurasian power block.  Down the timeline, 'twould be interesting to see if/when Japan and Germany clash due to competing interests. 

Are you envisioning a neutral UK or "merely" one that's retired from the field of combat for the nonce?  Either has definite implications for the Commonwealth and for the US.

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