Beyond The Sprues

Modelling => Ideas & Inspiration => Scenarios => Topic started by: GTX_Admin on August 18, 2020, 03:12:06 AM

Title: No Communist China
Post by: GTX_Admin on August 18, 2020, 03:12:06 AM
A new scenario:  what if somehow the Chinese Communists don't take control of mainland China in 1949.  I am not sure of the triggers for this to occur (maybe something happens to either/both Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong?  Maybe the US bolsters the Nationalists even more?).  Either way, we end up with Mainland China being a non-communist nation and probably a frontline state against the USSR throughout the cold war.  This could see US/Canadian etc forces stationed there plus much more in the way of western equipment wearing Nationalist markings.  Possibly the Vietnamese War takes a different turn too or maybe doesn't even happen.

Whilst much equipment might parallel what Taiwan had, I can think of a few new additions:

Chinese Nationalist F-4 Phantoms
Chinese Nationalist A-4 Skyhawks
Chinese Nationalist EE Lightnings
Chinese Nationalist F-106s
Chinese Nationalist Mirage IIIs
Chinese Nationalist F-15s
Chinese Nationalist A-10s
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: apophenia on August 20, 2020, 08:28:32 AM
I like it! The simplest scenario would be that the Civil War never occurred. How 'bout this ...

On 27 August 1945, Mao Tse-tung (accompanied by the US Ambassador, Patrick J. Hurley) flew from the Communist redoubt in Yanan in Shensi to Chungking. [1] Meetings with Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang officials lasted until 10 October 1945. The negotiations resulted in the signing of the 'Double Tenth Agreement' which, in turn, issued in the Third United Front. The Chinese Communist Party was now fully recognized as a ligitimate political party. The stated common goals were economic reconstruction of the war-ravaged country and the establishment of a democratic China. [2]

As part of the agreement, all Chinese armed forces were to be placed under the command of Chiang. Since the National Revolutionary Army was viewed as having allegiance to the KMT, the new combined force was rebranded as the Unified National Army (Tung-yi Kuomin Chun or TKC). Former NRA and Red Army units remained intact up to the Company (Kung-ssu) level but were integrated into new formations at Battalion (Yin) level. Chiang would be the titular Commander-in-Chief but the TKC would fall under the control of a new Ministry of Defence (Kuofang Pu).

In the meantime, a Constituent National Assembly session was called for November 1945. Lead CCP representatives would be Chou En-lai and Teng Hsiao-ping. The result was a new Constitution of the Republic of China. The biggest change was the replacement of one-party rule (by the KMT National Congress) with a new All-China Congress composed of Kuomintang and CCP appointees. This was a 'Temporary Provision' - an interim form pending democratic elections.

To Chiang's surprise, Mao did not put himself forward for high office - Chou En-lai would fill the political role of top CCP official in the All-China Congress. Instead, Mao accepted responsible for developing and implementing Land Reform policies. The outcome was a large-scale transfer of land-ownership to poor farmers with fairly reasonable compensation for landlords paid out by Chungking. As Mao had said: "The battle for China is a battle for the hearts and minds of the peasants."

Economic reconstruction faced the challenges of recovery from over a decade of total warfare. At the end of WW2, there were about 1.2 million Japanese troops in China along with around half a million civilians. Chiang was empowered to take their surrender (as well as those in Taiwan and Indochina north of the 16th parallel). By December 1945, a million Japanese soldiers had been disarmed in China. In the north, US Marines landed to disarm and begin repatriating Japanese troops. In the south, the NRA (and later the TKC) did the same. But there was a difference. Chiang had ordered good treatment of Japanese internees. That bore fruit when skilled personnel - both Japanese civilians and ex-military - were offered temporary paid positions in reconstruction work.

The employment of unrepatriated Japanese technicians and workers was not exactly kept a secret from America but it was kept low-profile for a number of reasons. A simple reason was American disapproval just when aid and assistance in China was most needed. A further cause of friction with Washington was Chungking's insistence that the fact of Japanese surrender entitled China to take control of Taiwan (where the NRA take-over did not go over well locally but the US avoided interfering - at the time, the US had enough on its plate). Another of Chungking's moves succeeded in both surprising and wrong-footing Washington - the 'surrendering' of Manchuria.

In August 1945, the Soviets had conquered Manchukuo and occupied it with more than half a million Red Army troops. The US had no intention of trying to displace these Soviet troops and Chungking was in no position to force Moscow's hand in Manchuria. Instead, the All-China Congress exercised the only power it had and formally recognized the independence of the former Manchukuo state. For the moment, a ruined Man'chzhuriya - along with its Japanese internees - was the responsibility of the Soviet Union. A campaign to reintegrate Manchuria could wait until the rest of China had been rebuilt.

Meanwhile, the Republic of China remains stable ... so long as none of the leaders lose the plot  ???

[1] This diplomatic feat was one outcome of the 1944 'Dixie Mission' (or United States Army Observation Group) to Yanan.

[2] Chiang's wording of an 'eventual' democracy was a sticking point. Eventually, it was agreed to hold free elections no later than the end of August 1948.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: GTX_Admin on August 21, 2020, 01:45:49 AM
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: Kelmola on August 21, 2020, 04:45:46 AM
This would tie in nicely with an alternate Vietnam. In OTL the Chinese took over Vietnam (down to the 16th parallel) in 1945 to disarm the surrendered Japanese, and Chiang actually supported the idea of an independent Vietnam (not willing to continue holding it at all) and went as far as to threaten the French with war unless they agreed to negotiate with Ho Chi Minh, and only let the French reoccupy the country in exchange for the French giving up their colonial holdings and priviledges in China. Obviously, with no civil war weakening China, their words will have much more weight and China does not need to give any concessions while still revoking any Unequal Treaties with France.

In OTL, the OSS had also made a report in 1945 that Vietminh was basically the only domestic party in Vietnam able to form a functioning government; however, in a tragic moment of irony, the report was never opened or read. Even if the butterflies don't bring attention to the sealed envelope in this TL, with the French in much weaker position than in OTL and China already showing an example of Communists being willing to cooperate in a democratic government (at least for the while), the Truman administration could well choose to support an independent Vietnam from the start (which had been Roosevelt's intent all along until his death). Democratic elections under neutral surveillance, clean sheet constitution, and a comprehensive land reform would be introduced, and in exchange for US economic and other support the Communists would in turn cease violence. The assumption is here that Ho would be willing to share power in exchange for the US support which he had sought in the first place, because that would make the now stronger Chinese leave and keep their influence to a minimum.


Of course, without a million Chinese volunteers turning the tide, the Korean War, if it ever starts, could end up badly for North Korea. There is of course the nominally independent Manchuria, but it does not have nearly as much manpower to spare. Stalin had already written of North Korea even in the OTL and was opposed to escalation, were it not for Mao deciding to intervene. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, therefore even the Chinese communists in this TL would not lift a finger to help a Soviet puppet state as long as the Manchurian question remained open. (The whole Manchurian affair would be Taiwan to the power of ten.)


Going forwards, if the Soviet Union hangs onto Manchuria, will there be similar borders clashes as the OTL fights on Ussuri River? These would be even more alarming than in OTL, because they would be between a West-aligned China and the Soviet Union.


Of course, if there's no Chinese Civil War to speak of, Vietnam is somewhat peacefully reformed, and North Korea loses, it would mean that there will be substantially smaller Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean communities in America, as there will be much less refugees.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: GTX_Admin on August 22, 2020, 02:51:38 AM

No Vietnam war and a reduced Korean War (basically ending in late 1950) would definitely see a different 20th century.  One might see the US units stationed in Sth Korea in our timeline moved more to the China/USSR border.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: apophenia on August 23, 2020, 02:30:13 AM
Alternatively, the Vietnam War starts earlier? Since the ROC was entitled to accept the Japanese surrender south to the 16th Parallel, Kiang may have been tempted to keep hold of northern Vietnam (ie: the French protectorates of Tonkin and northernmost Annam).

The first move would be to reclaim Kouang-Tchéou-Wan (Guangzhouwan, which was surrended to the French during the Ming Dynasty). Then, the Chinese occupation of the north becomes an effort to thwart the French in re-establishing their Indochine colony. Vietnamese nationalist would be just as unhappy under Chinese suzerainty as with French domination. Ultimate ROC defeat at Dien Bien Phu?

Alternatively, CCP representative could be sent south to negotiate with Ho Chi Minh et al. In exchange for Kouang-Tchéou-Wan, a mutual defence pact is signed between the ROC and Vietnam. Chinese troops would retire north of the revised border.

Korean Conflict: War could have proceeded as in OTL with the Soviets still occupying Manchuria. Of course, with Soviet Red Army troops used instead of Chinese, it quickly turns into a 'hot' superpower conflict  :o

Alternative 1945 Arms Source: During the Sino-Japanese War, elite NRA regiments wore M35 helmets and were armed with German-supplied weapons - 7.92 mm Mauser Kar97k rifles, ZB vz.26 and Dreyse MG13 LMGs, Stielhandgranate 24, etc. And, of course, China already had MG08 HMGs and locally-made Mausers (Type Zhongzheng rifles and 'broom-handle' C96 pistols) in service. So, maybe after May 1945, the ROC sources ex-Wehrmacht equipment? Postwar Europe would have been littered with plenty more M35s, Kar 97ks, and MG42s.

After 1946, a lot of surrendered Japanese Type 99 Arisakas were re-chambered for Mauser 7.92 x 57 mm rounds. The NRA also took on large numbers of Type 97 light machine gun and Type 92 heavy machine gun. It might have made sense to adopt the Japanese 7.7 x 58 cartridge as a second standard round and then distribute these 'standards' geographically - say 7.92 in the south of China, 7.7 in the north?
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: Kelmola on August 25, 2020, 08:10:24 PM
An interesting fallout from this scenario could well be that Japan will not rise to be the dominant industrial and commercial power it is. There's certainly no love lost between China and Japan, and with the entirety of China in the world market from the get-go, she is more than likely to take Japan's place in the post-war industrialization.

Of course, with their country now relegated to second-tier status, this could promote outright revanchism and whitewashing of their war history in Japan. What with the post-war American occupation, they could instead start to align against America, perceiving that it is America's fault that China is doing better than Japan. While I don't believe Japan would still turn communist, politicians could still start nurturing ties to the Soviet Union, if only just to spite the US.

Japanese MiGs, anyone? (They would be after all more affordable, if Japan's economy is in shambles...)
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: Old Wombat on August 25, 2020, 10:16:06 PM
I can't see Japan turning to the USSR for its independence, Russia & Japan had been antagonistic towards each other for most of the previous 40 years & the USSR had caused considerable losses to the Japanese during WW2, too.

Rather than going pro-Soviet I could see Japan being a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement & signatory of the Declaration of Brijuni in 1956.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: GTX_Admin on August 26, 2020, 02:37:27 AM
Japanese MiGs, anyone? (They would be after all more affordable, if Japan's economy is in shambles...)

I have an entirely different Communist Japan (or the People Democratic Republic of Nippon - PDRN - as I like to refer to it).  It involves the USSR landing forces in Japan proper at the end of the War and thus claiming control of Hokkaido and the northern part of Honshu.  As with Eastern Europe and Nth Korea, this becomes a Sovietn satellite state post war and follows a somewhat similar path.  It was all triggered by my desire to do a Japanese PDRN MiG-19. ;)
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: Jonesthetank on August 26, 2020, 06:02:58 AM
As an excuse to profile an F-86 in Manchukuo markings i had another variation on this theme....
Chiang realising that the CCP is too dominant in Manchuria for the KMT to deal with easily as WW2 is ending persuades the USA to land troops in Manchukuo to disarm the Japanese and Manchukuo forces. The US troops are supposed to be temporary, until the KMT is ready to take over.
As the KMT struggle to make headway during the Chinese civil war, the US opts to install a formal garrison and discretely assists in driving out the communist guerrillas. The US then recognises Manchukuo as a sovereign state, as the Nationalist forces are driven back by the PLA, so that Manchuria does not fall to the communists.
We end up with a pro-Western state wedged between North Korea, China and the USSR, with US forces in place as the Korean war begins.
Cue F-51D Mustangs in Manchukuo markings, with Sabres to follow, with the potential for the "new" Manchukuo to become a ROK like state.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: Volkodav on August 26, 2020, 08:15:09 PM
I read somwhere a few years back that if Nationalist China had just let the Communists stew in their own juices in Manchuria and concentrated on developing industrial capacity in the rest of the country the communist would have eventually collapsed or at worst become a hermit empire like North Korea.
Title: Re: No Communist China
Post by: apophenia on August 30, 2020, 08:31:24 AM
Attached is a map of the modest ambitions of the Chiang-Kai-shek dictatorship circa 1950. Having shortly arrived on Taiwan, Chiang intended that KMT troops return to China proper, not have their asses again, and then conquer all mainland territory in Asia north of India and east of the Urals and Caspian Sea.

From the arrows shown reaching across the north Pacific (and nuking Moscow?), I assume that Chiang was expecting some minor assistance from the USA in creating das Großchina. Unfortunately for the resident megalomaniac in Taipei, it took until 1965 to complete the detailed plans for this invasion ...

Still, seems do-able  ;D