Modelling > Scenarios
More Challenger 2s for Ukraine?
apophenia:
I'm putting this out as a 'scenario' since its all what-if policy (rather than mods or engineering).
Politics: Like a lot of folks, I've gone around in circles on the 'Leopard 2 log-jam'. BK Olaf Scholz has reserved for himself any final go-ahead decisions on re-exporting Leopard 2s. Most frustrating is that Scholz keeps 'moving the goalposts'. Whether this is intentional or dithering, the effect is the same.
While I was glad to see Christine Lambrecht gone, a BMVg headed by Boris Pistorius is worse in some ways. He flips back and forth about working in concert with allies, then German industry can't deliver rebuilt Leo 2A4s until 2024. When the lack of connection between approving allied re-exports and German rebuilds is pointed out, Pistorius switches over to vague SPD policy statements.
So, rather than waiting for Ukraine to lose momentum completely, what if the rest of NATO just exhales on any hope of prompt German action on approving Polish or Finnish Leopard re-exports?
Alternative: UK PM Rishi Sunak has already diverted Challenger 2s to Ukraine. So far, it is only 14 x CR2s and Ukraine is asking for hundreds. My suggestion is that Britain abandon the proposed Rheinmetall/BAE Systems Challenger 3 modernization programme. Instead, drop the 30-year-old CR2s in favour of taking on 250 x US-supplied M1A1s or M1A2s. [1]
In the short-term, this would free-up at least 184 x CR2s from active British Army service. [2] There are sound arguments against the Challenger 2 as an ideal tank for Ukraine - CR2 being a unique tank type with a distinct main armament. So, not exactly NATO-Standard. But the British Army holds sufficient spares to keep 200-odd vehicles viable long enough for a Spring offensive.
With the intensity of combat in Ukraine, the CR2s should probably be regarded as 'attritive'. The point is not to provide the ZSU with an 'ideal' NATO-Standard tank for the long-term. Rather, the objective is a decisive Ukrainian breakthrough. If the CR2 fleet is worn out when Putin throws in the towel, then the tanks will have served their purpose.
Okay, feuer frei! folks ;D
BTW: I've assumed that the ultimate replacement for Challengers (and the overly-heavy Abrams) would be a separate topic ... but I'm happy to engage here too.
____________________________________
[1] That vague "US-supplied" is intentional. Since speed would be of the essence, the Abrams could be leased (and left stock) or purchased (and modified to British Army standards). The Abrams variant taken on would depend upon source.
Some 400 ex-USMC M1A1 Abrams are out of service and currently in storage at the Sierra and Anniston Army Depots. Meanwhile, on the reserve storage side, the US Army has over 2,300 idle M1A2s (but, with ANGs, etc., outside access might be tricker - read: time-consuming).
[2] I am assuming 56 x CR 2s for both QRH and KRH, plus another 72 from the 4 x squadrons of the RTR. Other CR2 could be retained in the UK for now for training UA crews. Ditto for simulators and other training aids.
____________________________________
kim margosein:
I don't know if the Abrams is really to complex or if that is just an excuse. First, where are the Challengers that the UK gave to Ukraine now, and who is driving them? Now, say Ukraine gets all these western tanks. You will have Challengers, and Leopards in a couple of flavors. These tanks need to be fueled maintained supplied and repaired. These folks will need to be equipped and trained, along with the tank crew. This is not something that can be done overnight. Assuming a three month training period, these tanks have to be in Ukranian hands NOW. I don't know about switching from WARPAC to NATO tanks, but I read an article (in Husbhkit?) that switching from MiGs to F-16s required a whole different mindset. I think the tank crews will need to learn a different way of fighting, a different way of thinking.
Also= This is the first real first-world peer to peer combat since the Korean War. What stands out to me greater importance of artillery than expected, drones make hiding more difficult, and the massive attrition of sophisticated weaponry. This is the big takeaway of the war to me.
Kerick:
The Leopards and Challengers are already in Europe. So send them in. Ukraine will be using ex Soviet tanks for quite some time yet as that’s what they have the most of and the ammo for and experience with. Germany just can’t make up its mind so if someone else wants to send tanks let them and Germany can fight with them about it later. This is an emergency situation and should be treated as such.
Old Wombat:
The Germans will want to wait until the Eleventh Hour to make a decision, by then it'll be too late. Training crews takes time, which means the vehicles should be available now, not as the Russians are pushing into Poland!
This war should also be teaching Western politicians a vital lesson; You can't wait until a war starts to begin acquiring your military resources, you needed them yesterday!
It's time to bite the bullet, governments of the West; put pressure on the armaments manufacturers to streamline their production & R&D; punish those who are pork-barrelling; buy in bulk, not piecemeal dribs & drabs; increase your defence spending to a significant percentage of GDP (5% minimum); increase recruiting &, if that doesn't boost defence personnel numbers enough, re-introduce National Service.
Bah! Who am I kidding, we'll wait until it's too late & ensure more young people die than was ever necessary in an attempt at appeasement ... Again!
GTX_Admin:
Quite a bit to address here. To begin with the following might be useful viewing/reading:
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-great-tank-debate
https://youtu.be/n2fvltvllko
--- Quote from: apophenia on January 22, 2023, 09:29:47 AM ---Politics: Like a lot of folks, I've gone around in circles on the 'Leopard 2 log-jam'. BK Olaf Scholz has reserved for himself any final go-ahead decisions on re-exporting Leopard 2s. Most frustrating is that Scholz keeps 'moving the goalposts'. Whether this is intentional or dithering, the effect is the same.
--- End quote ---
I think there is a lot to do with the poor readiness of the Bundeswehr as a whole - see here for some discussion on this. Note that both sides of politics in Germany are responsible for this and the issues probably go back for 20 - 30yrs.
Basically, the German Military is essentially a mirage and thus any attempts to call upon it to support the likes of Ukraine are very difficult. That said, as can be see here they have actually managed to supply quite a bit...but at what cost?
--- Quote from: apophenia on January 22, 2023, 09:29:47 AM ---Alternative: UK PM Rishi Sunak has already diverted Challenger 2s to Ukraine. So far, it is only 14 x CR2s and Ukraine is asking for hundreds. My suggestion is that Britain abandon the proposed Rheinmetall/BAE Systems Challenger 3 modernization programme. Instead, drop the 30-year-old CR2s in favour of taking on 250 x US-supplied M1A1s or M1A2s. [1]
--- End quote ---
Getting the Abrams is not so easy. For one, you would want them in service before giving up the Challengers. This means at least a 6 - 12mth wait IMHO, if not more. Also, generating Abrams in the presumed latest M1A2 sEP v3 configuration will take time. the US is flat out converting tanks to this configuration now. In fact, a big part of the reason why Poland has gone for Abrams and K2s is that they can't get the desired number of Abrams in service fast enough. if the US could have supplied 750 - 1000 Abrams quicker the K2 deal wouldn't have happened.
--- Quote from: apophenia on January 22, 2023, 09:29:47 AM ---In the short-term, this would free-up at least 184 x CR2s from active British Army service. [2] There are sound arguments against the Challenger 2 as an ideal tank for Ukraine - CR2 being a unique tank type with a distinct main armament. So, not exactly NATO-Standard. But the British Army holds sufficient spares to keep 200-odd vehicles viable long enough for a Spring offensive.
--- End quote ---
Possibly, but again are you going to have an alternative in place before hand?
--- Quote from: apophenia on January 22, 2023, 09:29:47 AM ---Some 400 ex-USMC M1A1 Abrams are out of service and currently in storage at the Sierra and Anniston Army Depots. Meanwhile, on the reserve storage side, the US Army has over 2,300 idle M1A2s (but, with ANGs, etc., outside access might be tricker - read: time-consuming).
--- End quote ---
I understand that the ex-USMC Abrams are already earmarked for/physically being updated to M1A2 SEP v3s and are part of those going to both the US Army, Australia and Poland. Remember that other than Egypt, no-one is really making new Abrams any more. They are all refurbished from older stock.
BTW ANAD is not so much a storage depot as much a full overhaul depot - in fact, that's where the majority of the world's Abrams get overhauled.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
Go to full version