Modelling > Scenarios
The Spanish Civil War, rethought
Story:
Let's template the American/NATO response to Russia in the Ukraine back to 1936.
*What if* the western allies (GB/France and the US as seperate entities) could get past their fears of Communists in order to stop the other Socialists, the Fascists?
By opening the warehouses of their considerable stocks of WWI surplus as an excuse to gently kick start industry coming out of the Great Depression;
1) What do Republican forces gain?
2) What do the Nationalists gain from Germany & Italy?
3) What is the ripple effect with Poland, Norway, Finland, Yugoslavia and Greece?
4) What is the ripple effect outside of Spain? Specifically, AOI (Italian East Africa)?
This has all happened before, and this will all happen again.[/i]
GTX_Admin:
Have some thoughts…will add later
apophenia:
Yeah, there's a lot of similarities here with NATO supplying arms to a Soviet-calibred Ukraine. But at least NATO shares standards. The interwar British, French, and Americans shared little (other than the US having adopted some French artillery calibres during WW1). What the war in Ukraine tells us is that on-going ammunition supply and technical support for all those western weapons supplied to Spain would be the most important factor.
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---1) What do Republican forces gain?
--- End quote ---
As with modern-day Ukraine, Republican Spain would receive a confused mishmash of weapon types and calibres. The big difference from OTL would be the greatly increased numbers of weapons supplied. A western weapons supply would be most useful to the Ejército Popular de la República if donated weapons were allocated regionally. For example:
France could supply the Exèrcit Popular de Catalunya across its Pyrenees border as well as the EPR in Aragon and Valencia;
Britain could supply the EPR in Galicia and the Euzko Gudarostea (Basque Army) by sea from the Bay of Biscay;
America could supply Castilla la Nueva and the remains of Andalusia from Mediterranean ports (Almería and Cartagena).
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---2) What do the Nationalists gain from Germany & Italy?
--- End quote ---
I'm unclear on this question. Are you asking whether Italy and Germany escalate their support for Franco in response to western shipments? If so, I'm not sure that, materially, either nation had much more to give.
Manpower might be a factor though. In OTL, Italy provided 70,000-to-75,000 fighting men (with the CTV fielding a max of 50k at one time). German numbers were about a fifth of that (albeit, with the majority being skilled technicians - aircrews, panzer crews, etc.). So, one possible Nazi response to greater western aid might be a numerical increase in Wehrmacht 'volunteers' in Spain.
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---3) What is the ripple effect with Poland, Norway, Finland, Yugoslavia and Greece?
--- End quote ---
For weapons supply during the Spanish Civil War, little if any. Poland would continue to offload obsolete kit on the Republicans for maximum profit. Greece will continue to act as supply/shipping agents for both sides.
Or do you mean what effect on those countries during WW2? If so, that gets way more complicated. Does the supply of western weapons allow the Republic to prevail? Or does it just prolong the civil war? If the latter, then the ATL has a major point of departure in March of 1939. The results might be as follows:
- Poland: A Wehrmacht tied down in Spain means a less expansionist Reich in the shorter term;
- Norway: As above ... no OTL dating for Weserübung Nord (or the occupation of Denmark);
- Finland: Uncertain ... without the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, the USSR likely won't launch a Winter War;
- Greece: With at least 50k troops tied down in Spain, Mussolini might risk Albania but not Greece;
- Yugoslavia: Without the Greco-Italian cluster-fnck, no need for Hitler to invade Yugoslavia
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---4) What is the ripple effect outside of Spain? Specifically, AOI (Italian East Africa)?
--- End quote ---
Probably an improvement from an Italian perspective. In OTL, the Regio Esercito was able to control the territories of the AOI despite 75K of its personnel cycling through the Corpo Truppe Volontarie. Should the Spanish Civil War become extended, it is unlikely that Italy declares war on France or Britain in 1940. As a result, supply of the AOI from Italy remains a peacetime affair.
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---By opening the warehouses of their considerable stocks of WWI surplus as an excuse to gently kick start industry coming out of the Great Depression;
--- End quote ---
This brings up arms supply for Ukraine again. As we're seeing, emptying the stockpiles is one thing, building them back up again is quite another. That is going to be a tough sell for a peace-at-any-price British population or an isolationist American people. France - bled white in WW1 - was also very divided but I do see an angle to play there.
Beyond Depression-era economics, there is also a political angle. This would play best in a France then under a left-wing Front populaire (FP) government. Léon Blum was originally in favour of arms shipments to the Spanish government but later deferred to British opposition. But if Baldwin wasn't so strongly opposed, Blum would have felt no threat to the Franco-British alliance.
Anyway, I'll leave that political angle here ... unless anyone wants to get into the potential of 1930s French labour politics ;)
Story:
--- Quote from: apophenia on February 19, 2024, 07:02:09 AM ---Yeah, there's a lot of similarities here with NATO supplying arms to a Soviet-calibred Ukraine. But at least NATO shares standards. The interwar British, French, and Americans shared little (other than the US having adopted some French artillery calibres during WW1). What the war in Ukraine tells us is that on-going ammunition supply and technical support for all those western weapons supplied to Spain would be the most important factor.
--- End quote ---
Let's see - logistical headaches (.303, 8mm Lebel and .30-06 added to the 7.92x57 Mauser) vs not having enough rifles / "beggars can't be choosers". As far as polyglot ordnance supply issues, that was already clearly illustrated during China's Warlord Era.
Amercan FT17 light tanks, with Spanish Republican upgunning modifications.
Liberty Bombers turned into Republican close support bombers
&etc, &etc
Story:
--- Quote from: apophenia on February 19, 2024, 07:02:09 AM ---
--- Quote from: Story on February 18, 2024, 11:27:48 PM ---2) What do the Nationalists gain from Germany & Italy?
--- End quote ---
I'm unclear on this question. Are you asking whether Italy and Germany escalate their support for Franco in response to western shipments? If so, I'm not sure that, materially, either nation had much more to give.
Manpower might be a factor though. In OTL, Italy provided 70,000-to-75,000 fighting men (with the CTV fielding a max of 50k at one time). German numbers were about a fifth of that (albeit, with the majority being skilled technicians - aircrews, panzer crews, etc.). So, one possible Nazi response to greater western aid might be a numerical increase in Wehrmacht 'volunteers' in Spain.
--- End quote ---
I'll make it clearerer. Do the Facists send their first heavy tanks, after the Mk Is and IIs? M11/39s? Neubaufahrzeugs and Mk III/IVs?
Fun fact - in the US National Archive microfilm collection of captured Italian documents, there was a roster of Italian 'volunteer' officers to include one Capitan O. Fortuna. ??? :icon_music:
(Orff's piece came out in 1936. Talk about cool nomme de guerres)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_Fortuna_(Orff)
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MOD EDIT: Fixed quote. I hope! -CA
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