Modelling > Scenarios

No Communist China

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apophenia:
Alternatively, the Vietnam War starts earlier? Since the ROC was entitled to accept the Japanese surrender south to the 16th Parallel, Kiang may have been tempted to keep hold of northern Vietnam (ie: the French protectorates of Tonkin and northernmost Annam).

The first move would be to reclaim Kouang-Tchéou-Wan (Guangzhouwan, which was surrended to the French during the Ming Dynasty). Then, the Chinese occupation of the north becomes an effort to thwart the French in re-establishing their Indochine colony. Vietnamese nationalist would be just as unhappy under Chinese suzerainty as with French domination. Ultimate ROC defeat at Dien Bien Phu?

Alternatively, CCP representative could be sent south to negotiate with Ho Chi Minh et al. In exchange for Kouang-Tchéou-Wan, a mutual defence pact is signed between the ROC and Vietnam. Chinese troops would retire north of the revised border.

Korean Conflict: War could have proceeded as in OTL with the Soviets still occupying Manchuria. Of course, with Soviet Red Army troops used instead of Chinese, it quickly turns into a 'hot' superpower conflict  :o

Alternative 1945 Arms Source: During the Sino-Japanese War, elite NRA regiments wore M35 helmets and were armed with German-supplied weapons - 7.92 mm Mauser Kar97k rifles, ZB vz.26 and Dreyse MG13 LMGs, Stielhandgranate 24, etc. And, of course, China already had MG08 HMGs and locally-made Mausers (Type Zhongzheng rifles and 'broom-handle' C96 pistols) in service. So, maybe after May 1945, the ROC sources ex-Wehrmacht equipment? Postwar Europe would have been littered with plenty more M35s, Kar 97ks, and MG42s.

After 1946, a lot of surrendered Japanese Type 99 Arisakas were re-chambered for Mauser 7.92 x 57 mm rounds. The NRA also took on large numbers of Type 97 light machine gun and Type 92 heavy machine gun. It might have made sense to adopt the Japanese 7.7 x 58 cartridge as a second standard round and then distribute these 'standards' geographically - say 7.92 in the south of China, 7.7 in the north?

Kelmola:
An interesting fallout from this scenario could well be that Japan will not rise to be the dominant industrial and commercial power it is. There's certainly no love lost between China and Japan, and with the entirety of China in the world market from the get-go, she is more than likely to take Japan's place in the post-war industrialization.

Of course, with their country now relegated to second-tier status, this could promote outright revanchism and whitewashing of their war history in Japan. What with the post-war American occupation, they could instead start to align against America, perceiving that it is America's fault that China is doing better than Japan. While I don't believe Japan would still turn communist, politicians could still start nurturing ties to the Soviet Union, if only just to spite the US.

Japanese MiGs, anyone? (They would be after all more affordable, if Japan's economy is in shambles...)

Old Wombat:
I can't see Japan turning to the USSR for its independence, Russia & Japan had been antagonistic towards each other for most of the previous 40 years & the USSR had caused considerable losses to the Japanese during WW2, too.

Rather than going pro-Soviet I could see Japan being a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement & signatory of the Declaration of Brijuni in 1956.

GTX_Admin:

--- Quote from: Kelmola on August 25, 2020, 08:10:24 PM ---Japanese MiGs, anyone? (They would be after all more affordable, if Japan's economy is in shambles...)

--- End quote ---

I have an entirely different Communist Japan (or the People Democratic Republic of Nippon - PDRN - as I like to refer to it).  It involves the USSR landing forces in Japan proper at the end of the War and thus claiming control of Hokkaido and the northern part of Honshu.  As with Eastern Europe and Nth Korea, this becomes a Sovietn satellite state post war and follows a somewhat similar path.  It was all triggered by my desire to do a Japanese PDRN MiG-19. ;)

Jonesthetank:
As an excuse to profile an F-86 in Manchukuo markings i had another variation on this theme....
Chiang realising that the CCP is too dominant in Manchuria for the KMT to deal with easily as WW2 is ending persuades the USA to land troops in Manchukuo to disarm the Japanese and Manchukuo forces. The US troops are supposed to be temporary, until the KMT is ready to take over.
As the KMT struggle to make headway during the Chinese civil war, the US opts to install a formal garrison and discretely assists in driving out the communist guerrillas. The US then recognises Manchukuo as a sovereign state, as the Nationalist forces are driven back by the PLA, so that Manchuria does not fall to the communists.
We end up with a pro-Western state wedged between North Korea, China and the USSR, with US forces in place as the Korean war begins.
Cue F-51D Mustangs in Manchukuo markings, with Sabres to follow, with the potential for the "new" Manchukuo to become a ROK like state.

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