Modelling > Scenarios

Japan invades Australia

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raafif:
M.A.D. & I were going to do this but his real life got in the way.
There are several threads on this over on Alt History sites but all fail in some basic way - ie to remove the US from the equation & force Australia to design more of its own equipment.  Our scenario does this ....  They also have Mustangs & CA-15 Kangaroos in action in 1944 ... something that we avoid, having our own distinctive aircraft.

Following the USA's badgering to open free-trade through-out the 1800s, Japan decides to increase its commercial assets.  This results in the Japanese invasion of Manchuria with plans to expand westwards but Russia makes it plain where Soviet borders of influence lay .... 

It is thought too dangerous to attempt to attack US holdings in Hawaii & the passive US attitude serves their purpose.

Japan decides to expand south thru Asia, its army eventually taking all, including the Philippines & Guam, down to New Guinea.
These gains are enough to satisfy Japan for the time being as they are heavily extended in their drive south thru Singapore & New Guinea.
The Battle of Kokoda & other skirmishes drive Australian troops back to their own country in a "Dunkirk" style eviction.

Japan pauses to consolidate & get their supply-lines working efficiently before conquering Australia for its minerals (Mt. Isa's reserves discovered in the 1930's instead of the 1950's) - now much needed to expand Japan's mechanised armed-forces.


To the USA, the loss of Guam and the Philippines is a bitter blow - but coupled with the government's non-combative policies & the civilian desire to stay out of the war in Europe, America is set to continue it's passive stance.  This does not however extend to commercial trade -- the US providing material of all sorts to the Allies in Europe -- supplies to Axis belligerents is banned.
As America doesn't go to war at all, the B-17B/C/D is as far as US bomber development goes - a few B-17E's are built in late 1945.  The best US fighter pre-1947 is the Curtiss P-85 Battle-Hawk (radial-engined P-40) simply an extension of the Curtiss Hawk-75 line.
The Mustang fighter is still produced by North American for the RAF who take all production - they & Hudson bombers are shipped to the UK thru Canada -- only a few Hudsons get to Australia.
Most US aircraft that we are familiar with are not designed so no Marauder, B-24, Invader etc etc.


Britain is too concerned with Europe & Nth Africa  (if only the USA would join in, as in WW1, but that is not to be)  to provide any assistance to Australia.
Australia's only help is New Zealnd plus a very little manufacturing help from Canada & Sth Africa.

Two events worked to Australia's advantage in the real world -- Fred David, a German Jew, worked for Heinkel & then for Nakajima in Japan before fleeing to Australia and designing the Boomerang fighter - without him we would have been stuck with the Wirraway Fighter - basically an early version of a Harvard to face Japanese Zeros.  The other was another German Jew who somehow smuggled an Oerlikon 20mm cannon into Australia, providing us with a better aircraft gun than the .303.

more later ....

Volkodav:
I like.

My grandfather told me about the Oerlikon being reverse engineered in Australia from a single example used as a pattern, I think he told me that example was brought back from the middle east though.

An interesting angle on this story is the fact that Jellico basically predicted the Japanese annexation of SEA and the Western Pacific in his review of Dominion Defences in 1920.  One of the foundations of an Australian defence was to have been local production of combat aircraft from the 1920s  and the formation of a second Fleet Division formed around a battle cruiser and also including an aircraft carrier.

In addition Chauvel desired to retain the AIF as a regular army, motorise and then mechanise it, the government decided to ignore him and Jellico but what if they actually listened and acted responsibly instead?

Old Wombat:
In the unlikely event that Australia is not occupied & ejects the Japanese, I can see major changes in post-war Australia.

1st of these would be a change in focus from primary production to industrialisation as our main income source, with a greater focus on R&D & manufacturing (value-adding) becoming the norm.

2ndly becoming a republic is much more likely but not a certainty.

The big problem is wartime R&D to production lead-in times. How do you overcome the lag between idea & in-service?

I love the Boomerang but it was a stop-gap fighter, designed in a rush & using available tooling (not bolt-on interchangable parts) from Wirraway production for its design. A new, locally built fighter would need to be put into production much faster than it was & in much greater numbers; whether that is a foreign design built under license or a home-grown product is up for debate.

Armoured & other vehicle production would have to explode, too, as would ship building.

At the same time, to man this equipment general conscription would have to be introduced... but where from, because the aircraft, tank, vehicle & ship building industries would also need workers?

Our isolation & small population work against us & defeat looms large on the horizon! :-X

I suppose the "Brisbane Line" could come into play, giving the Japanese 90% of what they want at little to no cost.

:icon_crap:

Guy

Volkodav:
Interestingly, while the IJN were keen to invade the army was not, the logistics and manpower required made it in their opinion, a difficult if not impossible task. Remember by 1942 the militia had been mobilized with the Calvary already motorized and well on the way to being mechanized.  The were armored divisions being readied for service in the middle east and infantry divisions in the middle east preparing to return home. RAAF squadrons overseas were well trained and experienced and being recalled, in particular think of the desert air force fighter / ground  attack squadrons.

assuming the IJN got their invasion it would have been interesting to see how the army fared against a fully mobilized Australia attacking from behind the Brisbane Line.

Old Wombat:
We're talking about a population of just over 7,100,000 vs a population of about 72,500,000.

Sheer weight of numbers was against us & Japan was already much more industrialised.

Without the Americans taking out huge chunks of their army & navy Australia is not looking too healthy.

Coral Sea & Midway gave the IJN a severe battering from which they never fully recovered. One reason we halted the IJA in New Guinea was because the high command weren't willing to put more troops into NG because they were concerned about what the US was going to do next.

However, as this is Whifworld, let's assume the Japanese took a BIG break of a couple or 3 years, to consolidate & prepare for the invasion of Australia.

So, what could we have pulled out of our collective hats to counter them? ???

 :icon_ninja:

Guy (Thinking! Thinking! :icon_meditation: )

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