4. USAF procurement of the F-8 Crusader, possibly with a J-79 and a Vulcan?
Mmmm.... 
Maybe also USAF A-6 Intruders in the strike role?
Distinct possibility...
However, another "no Phantom" scenario I've considered is "it's a Phantom Jim but not as we know it". In this version, the A-6 gets bogged down in unsolvable avionics difficulties and is cancelled before it enters service. This causes a huge scandal, ends the careers of those officers pushing for a sophisticated attack plane, and causes a change of USN policy towards a more general-purpose big, fast striker like the F-105. The Thud itself would never be carrier compatible, but MacDonnell just happened to be trying to find a niche for it's new big "fighter" by calling it the AH-1 at the time, so the Phantom WAS adopted, but in the form of a sort of "Super-Skyhawk", with a small radar, single seat, 4 x 20mm, flat 6-pylon wing, flat tailplanes and no missile bays.
The AH-1 Phantom effectively displaced the Skyhawks onto the smaller
Essex class carriers, and meant that the A-7 Corsair never happened either. Big carriers now operated updated A-5 Vigilantes (in an expanded conventional role) for long-range attack/recce/tanker functions, AH-1s for heavy attack and F-8U-3 Super-Crusaders as fighters.
Essexs operated orignal F-8s and Skyhawks.