Author Topic: Gripens for Ukraine?  (Read 5523 times)

Offline apophenia

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Gripens for Ukraine?
« on: January 26, 2023, 10:55:34 AM »
Oh no! He's at it again ...  :o

'Hryfon' - A Ukrainian JAS 39C

This scenario acknowledges that, while the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine is being considered, the Swedish Saab Gripen fighter is actually better-suited to operational conditions in Ukraine. Key components in that conclusion are Gripen's lower weight, relative simplicity, and ease of maintenance. [1] This is not an argument about which aircraft type is superior. Rather, it is a question of which airframe would best handle the rough-and-ready conditions of current PS/ZSU (Ukrainian AF) basing.

The Swedish government is under great pressure just now - having an understandably nervous population and the country's application to join NATO being blocked by Turkey. With this in mind, perhaps the only 'partner' in a position to encourage Sweden to donate/transfer Gripens to Ukraine would be the United States. The concept is this:

The US actively encourages the donation of ex-Flygvapnet JAS 39C Gripens to Kyiv. To facilitate this, the US offers Sweden a no-cost loan of ex-USAF F-16C/D Block 50 fighters to act as Gripen stand-ins. With the F-16C in Flygvapnet service, Sweden would be free to transfer its 71 x JAS 39C single-seat Gripens to Ukraine. [2]

In the meantime, the the Dec 2022 Gripen upgrade contract between FMV and Saab would be amended. The revised contract would cover only the Flygvapnet's 23 x 2-seat Gripen Ds. The upgrade order for the 71 x JAS 39Cs would be changed into orders for new, replacement JAS 39E airframes to be built by Saab. As two-seat Gripens are rotated through the update programme, at least half will be held back (or re-delivered as upgrades) to keep some Swedish pilots current on the type while also serving to train Ukrainian personnel in Sweden.

To preserve Sweden's sovereignty during the transition, the US could offer temporary basing of USAF F-16s in Sweden - in the form of an 'extended collective defence exercise'. Beyond adding to Swedish air defence at a vulnerable time, the basing of US troops in Sweden would also put that Nordic country firmly under the US nuclear umbrella. (Thereby giving Stockholm relief from Erdogan's diktats until after the Turkish elections in May.) Once Flygvapnet personnel have transitioned to F-16Cs, American aircraft and personnel could be withdrawn (possibly to Spangdahlem AB to indicate a 'return' to Germany).

At the same time, PS/ZSU (UaAF) personnel in Sweden would train on Gripen 'Ds for 'Bas 90 operations - under Flygbassystem 90, aircraft are well dispersed using forest canopies for cover and rural highways for airstrips. Meanwhile, Ukrainian equivalents to Bas 90 positions('Osnova 23'?) would be prepared for UaAF JAS 39C operations against the Russians.

One question: UaAF MiG-29s and Su-27s are adapted to carry AGM-88s. So, is there any need for HARM to be integrated onto Ukrainian JAS 39Cs?

Of course, politically, it would be simpler to just give Ukraine some ex-USAF F-16s. The problem is finding intact runways for them to operate from. If F-16s operated from Ivano/Frankivs'k, Starokostiantyniv, or Ozerne, those ex-Soviet bases would quickly receive extra attention from Russian cruise missiles.) Would it be realistic to surreptitiously upgrade Ukrainian roadways to the standards needed to operate F-16s? I suspect not.

Anyway, Ukrainian Gripens ... what have I missed?

___________________________________


[1] The JAS 39C Gripen's mtow is 14,000 kg (30,900 lbs) versus the F-16C's 37,500-to-48,000 lbs (depending upon the Block and upgrades incorporated). Here, 'relative simplicity' included ease of access for maintenance on the ground - most Gripen systems being design to be accessible to a standing technician (without any need for special stands or ladders).

A distinction needs to be made between ease of maintenance and maintenance costs. There is an on-going debate about true, hourly maintenance costs for Gripens. But no-one disputes that the JAS 39 was designed to be readily maintained in austere conditions, primarily by a conscript skeleton crew using a simple set of tools and equipment.

[2] Something like: 60 x operational JAS 39Cs in three regiments of 15 fighters each ... leaving 11 UaAF Gripens in reserve to allow for advanced training and replenishment for operational attrition.
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Offline Old Wombat

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2023, 09:31:49 PM »
 8) :smiley:
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Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2023, 01:29:43 AM »
Anyway, Ukrainian Gripens ... what have I missed?


An image perhaps?  ;)

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2023, 01:48:51 AM »
I don't see Sweden being interested in F-16s even for an interim.  More likely to get Ukrainian Gripens in the near term would be to have the leased Czech Air Force ones go to Ukraine and then the Czechs either get their ordered F-35s accelerated or something as a backfill.
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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2023, 03:12:02 AM »
Speaking of F-16s:

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Offline apophenia

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2023, 03:47:47 AM »
Thanks Greg. I considered pinching Logan's gorgeous profile but thought that a complete repaint clashed with the desired speed of delivery.

I don't see Sweden being interested in F-16s even for an interim.  More likely to get Ukrainian Gripens in the near term would be to have the leased Czech Air Force ones go to Ukraine and then the Czechs either get their ordered F-35s accelerated or something as a backfill.

AFAIK, the Czechs only have 14 x Gripens - so just enough for one UaAF regiment. Still, it wouldd be a start. And, as you've sort of implied, the CzAF might be happier with F-16 backfills as they await F-35s.

South Africa has 26 x Gripens. Rather a pity that 'The West' or Saab didn't think to snag those grounded SAAF Gripens before South Africa's MTX contract woes got sorted out in December. At one point, it was suggested that the ZA Gripens should be sold off to free up funds for transport (C-130BZ) and patrol (C-47TP) aircraft.

https://www.defenceweb.co.za/editorial/editor-column/saaf-should-consider-selling-gripens-and-buying-transports/

Offering the SAAF the right trade might have clinched the deal. I'm thinking a mix of those C-130Js the RAF has been keen to be rid of and some similarly-engined Saab 2000 MPAs.
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Offline ChernayaAkula

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2023, 11:19:32 AM »
One of the Gripen's other advantage over MLU-Vipers (from the Netherlands), other Vipers or surplus RAF Tranche 1 Typhoons is Meteor-compatibility from the get-go. Knowing those are around might dissuade russian fighters taking pot-shots from across the border. Might even push back russian A-50s a fair bit.

Unless the US is open to sending JASSM (given JASSM-ER has entered production, JASSM sans suffixe's days are numbered anyway) with F-16, Gripen also has the advantage of Taurus and RBS-15. Any air-launched cruise missile would also alleviate the calls for ATACMS to some degree. Also means russia's SAM belt won't need penetrating.

14 Czech Gripens, some from South Africa, some Swedish ones...? Should be able to generate a force that can handle defensive counter-air and a fair bit of strike.

What happened to the JAS-39A/B Gripens? There must be some left. I don't think they've all been converted to C/Ds. While not as capable as the C/Ds, someone might pick them up for a good price to swap for some C/Ds? With AMRAAMs, they're still decent for most tasks.

Mostly moneys solvable problems, no?
Cheers,
Moritz

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Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2023, 02:32:29 AM »
14 Czech Gripens, some from South Africa, some Swedish ones...? Should be able to generate a force that can handle defensive counter-air and a fair bit of strike.

The Magyar Légierő (Hungarian Air Force) also has some on a lease deal similar to the Czechs.  That said, I understand that they plan to keep them in service well into the 2030s with no obvious or affordable plans for replacements just yet.  Besides I somehow doubt Viktor Orbán will allow anything weapon like to be sent to Ukraine (he might send more communion wine though...)

What happened to the JAS-39A/B Gripens? There must be some left. I don't think they've all been converted to C/Ds. While not as capable as the C/Ds, someone might pick them up for a good price to swap for some C/Ds? With AMRAAMs, they're still decent for most tasks.

Not sure what happened to the A models - some were converted to C model but not sure if all. 

There is I suppose the chance of sending some of the C models as Sweden replaces them with E models.  That will still require US agreement though as the RM12 is still essentially a F404 and thus subject to ITAR restrictions.

« Last Edit: January 29, 2023, 02:36:37 AM by GTX_Admin »
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Offline apophenia

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2023, 11:05:43 AM »
... There is I suppose the chance of sending some of the C models as Sweden replaces them with E models...

And, apparently, the Flygvapnet hasn't the pilots to fly them all anyway ...

-- https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/sweden-struggling-with-supplier-shortages-gripen-flight-hours-decline-government-report/
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Offline Jeffry Fontaine

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2023, 12:19:06 PM »
... There is I suppose the chance of sending some of the C models as Sweden replaces them with E models...

And, apparently, the Flygvapnet hasn't the pilots to fly them all anyway ...

-- https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/sweden-struggling-with-supplier-shortages-gripen-flight-hours-decline-government-report/
Of the various aircraft types proposed I would say that the Gripen would be the best choice for Ukraine.  The Gripen was designed from the start to operate from austere locations such as remote highway strips and this alone would mean that the Gripen has a much greater chance for survival on the ground if it is dispersed to locations that are more difficult to identify as aviation assets and infrastructure.  The same can not be said for any of the other aircraft that must rely on well prepared airfields to operate and thus put all of your eggs in an easy to identify and attack location.  The only thing that would be better at this would be a flock of Harriers but that ship has sailed. 
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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2023, 02:45:43 AM »
Well some F-35Bs might go nicely too….just saying.
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Offline Kelmola

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2023, 06:09:44 PM »
The same can not be said for any of the other aircraft that must rely on well prepared airfields to operate and thus put all of your eggs in an easy to identify and attack location.
Ummm... Even though it is not "designed" for it, Finnish Air Force has been operating F/A-18's from highway landing strips in readiness exercises without any significant problems for 25+ years now (just like we do with Hawks, and like we did with Drakens and MiG-21's), and we've managed to train conscripts to take part in the arming & maintenance too. The F-18's qualities derived from its naval design - improved corrosion protection, low landing & take-off speed, tolerance for high sink rates, and ability to use the arrestor hook in every landing - have actually been advantageous when operating from roadside bases (foreign object damage from the low-slung intakes behind the nosewheel has so far been avoided, even though critics claimed beforehand that this would have been a significant risk). Even though we won't have F-18's to spare before getting F-35's and/or Erdogan stopshis charade and admits us into Nato, there's currently 106 C/D and 68 A/B airframes in the Boneyard with more on the way as the USMC keeps converting to F-35 (of course it could be arranged that Finland/Canada/Spain gets replacements from these in exchange for delivering already operational Hornets). As an added bonus, the Gripen's RM12 engine is a derivative of Hornet's F404 which might allow some cross-training and/or parts commonality.

Offline Jeffry Fontaine

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2023, 08:57:11 AM »
The same can not be said for any of the other aircraft that must rely on well prepared airfields to operate and thus put all of your eggs in an easy to identify and attack location.
Ummm... Even though it is not "designed" for it, Finnish Air Force has been operating F/A-18's from highway landing strips in readiness exercises without any significant problems for 25+ years now (just like we do with Hawks, and like we did with Drakens and MiG-21's), and we've managed to train conscripts to take part in the arming & maintenance too. The F-18's qualities derived from its naval design - improved corrosion protection, low landing & take-off speed, tolerance for high sink rates, and ability to use the arrestor hook in every landing - have actually been advantageous when operating from roadside bases (foreign object damage from the low-slung intakes behind the nosewheel has so far been avoided, even though critics claimed beforehand that this would have been a significant risk). Even though we won't have F-18's to spare before getting F-35's and/or Erdogan stopshis charade and admits us into Nato, there's currently 106 C/D and 68 A/B airframes in the Boneyard with more on the way as the USMC keeps converting to F-35 (of course it could be arranged that Finland/Canada/Spain gets replacements from these in exchange for delivering already operational Hornets). As an added bonus, the Gripen's RM12 engine is a derivative of Hornet's F404 which might allow some cross-training and/or parts commonality.
I overlooked the F-18 Hornet due to so few operators in the EU with Spain and Finland being the only two in theatre not including Canada since they are there because of NATO commitments.  I agree with everything you stated and if there were Hornets available to be delivered to Ukraine then by all means, add the Hornet to the list. 

Also in support of your comments regarding the F-18 is a link to an Ilmavoimat Hornet being refueled somewhere in Finland at a temporary highway strip: YouTube > Manufly59 > Ilmavoimat/Finnish Air Force F-18D Hornet hot refueling on the highway
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Offline ChernayaAkula

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2023, 10:26:23 AM »
If only the Ukrainian plan/discussion/spit-balling to license-build Gripens from around 2013/14 had come to fruition. AIUI, the first russian invasion meant the funds were needed elsewhere and the idea was scrapped. If only...

The Magyar Légierő (Hungarian Air Force) also has some on a lease deal similar to the Czechs. <...>  Besides I somehow doubt Viktor Orbán will allow anything weapon like to be sent to Ukraine <...>

Yeah, that's why I didn't include the Hungarian Gripens in the first place.  ::)

I overlooked the F-18 Hornet due to so few operators in the EU with Spain and Finland being the only two in theatre not including Canada since they are there because of NATO commitments.  I agree with everything you stated and if there were Hornets available to be delivered to Ukraine then by all means, add the Hornet to the list. <...>

How about the ex-RAAF Hornets acquired by Air USA/RAVN? 46 Hornets, ready to go, in good state, not missed in active duty units.
Since Air USA/RAVN's main customer is the US DoD, there should be a way to figure out a deal they'll agree to.
What has happened to the USN/USMC Hornets that have been retired so far?
Cheers,
Moritz

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Offline Jeffry Fontaine

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2023, 10:39:02 AM »
I overlooked the F-18 Hornet due to so few operators in the EU with Spain and Finland being the only two in theatre not including Canada since they are there because of NATO commitments.  I agree with everything you stated and if there were Hornets available to be delivered to Ukraine then by all means, add the Hornet to the list. <...>
How about the ex-RAAF Hornets acquired by Air USA/RAVN? 46 Hornets, ready to go, in good state, not missed in active duty units.
Since Air USA/RAVN's main customer is the US DoD, there should be a way to figure out a deal they'll agree to.
What has happened to the USN/USMC Hornets that have been retired so far?
Or assemble an international group of qualified F-18 pilots as an "All Volunteer Group" to go and take care of business like they did in China with the Flying Tigers. 
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Offline Kerick

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2023, 10:57:58 AM »
A Ukrainian F-18 with a Flying Tiger shark mouth? Drop everything! I’ve got a whiff to build!

Offline Jeffry Fontaine

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2023, 12:57:56 PM »
The "Blackhawks" (DC Comics) would have been another great inspiration for the volunteer group. 
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Offline apophenia

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2023, 07:18:50 AM »
A Ukrainian F-18 with a Flying Tiger shark mouth? Drop everything! I’ve got a whiff to build!
Froglord: "... amphibious doom descends ... approach the alter and swear your allegiance to the swamp."

Offline Sport25ing

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2023, 08:38:39 AM »
While i'm not pro-Russian, over the recent events that Russia might buy Chinese equipment, imagine:

- Ukrainian F-16/Gripen/Eurofighter vs Russian J-11/16 (might by a massive whatif, but still  :smiley:)
- Ukrainian Patriot shoot down an Wagner Group Nanchang Q-5

Offline Kerick

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2023, 11:21:15 AM »
A Ukrainian F-18 with a Flying Tiger shark mouth? Drop everything! I’ve got a whiff to build!

I think I still have an A-10 shark mouth in the decal stash. I made some Ukrainian decals.

Offline Sport25ing

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2023, 06:40:40 AM »
Another cool idea:

Ukraine wants attack helicopters - and Japan wants to replace all its attack and recon helicopters with drones...

Offline apophenia

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2023, 10:44:59 AM »
Ukraine wants attack helicopters - and Japan wants to replace all its attack and recon helicopters with drones...

Hmmm ....  ;D
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Offline Sport25ing

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2023, 05:20:17 PM »
Ukraine wants attack helicopters - and Japan wants to replace all its attack and recon helicopters with drones...

Hmmm ....  ;D

It's a what-if, isn't?

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2023, 02:50:30 AM »
Ukraine wants attack helicopters - and Japan wants to replace all its attack and recon helicopters with drones...

Hmmm ....  ;D

You can just sense that Stephen is already planning a AH-64 in Ukrainian scheme...
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Offline apophenia

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Re: Gripens for Ukraine?
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2023, 05:54:00 AM »
You can just sense that Stephen is already planning a AH-64 in Ukrainian scheme...

Not quite ...  :D

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