Oh no! He's at it again ...
'
Hryfon' - A Ukrainian JAS 39C
This scenario acknowledges that, while the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine is being considered, the Swedish Saab
Gripen fighter is actually better-suited to operational conditions in Ukraine. Key components in that conclusion are
Gripen's lower weight, relative simplicity, and ease of maintenance. [1] This is not an argument about which aircraft type is superior. Rather, it is a question of which airframe would best handle the rough-and-ready conditions of current PS/ZSU (Ukrainian AF) basing.
The Swedish government is under great pressure just now - having an understandably nervous population and the country's application to join NATO being blocked by Turkey. With this in mind, perhaps the only 'partner' in a position to encourage Sweden to donate/transfer
Gripens to Ukraine would be the United States. The concept is this:
The US actively encourages the donation of ex-Flygvapnet JAS 39C
Gripens to Kyiv. To facilitate this, the US offers Sweden a no-cost loan of ex-USAF F-16C/D Block 50 fighters to act as
Gripen stand-ins. With the F-16C in Flygvapnet service, Sweden would be free to transfer its 71 x JAS 39C single-seat
Gripens to Ukraine. [2]
In the meantime, the the Dec 2022
Gripen upgrade contract between FMV and Saab would be amended. The revised contract would cover only the Flygvapnet's 23 x 2-seat
Gripen Ds. The upgrade order for the 71 x JAS 39Cs would be changed into orders for new, replacement JAS 39E airframes to be built by Saab. As two-seat
Gripens are rotated through the update programme, at least half will be held back (or re-delivered as upgrades) to keep some Swedish pilots current on the type while also serving to train Ukrainian personnel in Sweden.
To preserve Sweden's sovereignty during the transition, the US could offer temporary basing of USAF F-16s in Sweden - in the form of an 'extended collective defence exercise'. Beyond adding to Swedish air defence at a vulnerable time, the basing of US troops in Sweden would also put that Nordic country firmly under the US nuclear umbrella. (Thereby giving Stockholm relief from Erdogan's diktats until after the Turkish elections in May.) Once Flygvapnet personnel have transitioned to F-16Cs, American aircraft and personnel could be withdrawn (possibly to Spangdahlem AB to indicate a 'return' to Germany).
At the same time, PS/ZSU (UaAF) personnel in Sweden would train on
Gripen 'Ds for '
Bas 90 operations - under
Flygbassystem 90, aircraft are well dispersed using forest canopies for cover and rural highways for airstrips. Meanwhile, Ukrainian equivalents to
Bas 90 positions('
Osnova 23'?) would be prepared for UaAF JAS 39C operations against the Russians.
One question: UaAF MiG-29s and Su-27s are adapted to carry AGM-88s. So, is there any need for HARM to be integrated onto Ukrainian JAS 39Cs?
Of course, politically, it would be simpler to just give Ukraine some ex-USAF F-16s. The problem is finding intact runways for them to operate from. If F-16s operated from Ivano/Frankivs'k, Starokostiantyniv, or Ozerne, those ex-Soviet bases would quickly receive extra attention from Russian cruise missiles.) Would it be realistic to surreptitiously upgrade Ukrainian roadways to the standards needed to operate F-16s? I suspect not.
Anyway, Ukrainian
Gripens ... what have I missed?
___________________________________
[1] The JAS 39C
Gripen's mtow is 14,000 kg (30,900 lbs) versus the F-16C's 37,500-to-48,000 lbs (depending upon the Block and upgrades incorporated). Here, 'relative simplicity' included ease of access for maintenance on the ground - most
Gripen systems being design to be accessible to a standing technician (without any need for special stands or ladders).
A distinction needs to be made between ease of maintenance and maintenance costs. There is an on-going debate about true, hourly maintenance costs for
Gripens. But no-one disputes that the JAS 39 was designed to be readily maintained in austere conditions, primarily by a conscript skeleton crew using a simple set of tools and equipment.
[2] Something like: 60 x operational JAS 39Cs in three regiments of 15 fighters each ... leaving 11 UaAF
Gripens in reserve to allow for advanced training and replenishment for operational attrition.
