I would say the 37E "Eurofighter" variant of the Viggen gets developed and at least Norway and Denmark operate it. Maybe the increased prevalence of Viggen in the neighbouring countries will cause Luftwaffe to re-evaluate their "no single engine plane after Starfighter" policy? Also, BAe did contribute to Gripen design, so it would not be so strange to see them contributing to the Viggen Eurofighter already. Sea Viggen? The landing gear was already stressed for carrier-grade sink rates, the automatic landing system placed the plane on a runway with the accuracy that would have been good enough for carrier landings, the rudder folded already, and corrosion prevention was probably also pretty good considering it had to withstand outside parking in Nordic winter, so "only" catapult fittings and arrestor hook were missing (yes, I know, navalizing an aircraft is not that simple outside whiffverse, and for example, the thrust reverser would have been so much dead weight on a carrier aircraft).
F-20 proliferation is also a certainty, given that Northrop was going to develop an update for the F-5 series anyway, LFW or not. Of course, Vought might actually find customers for their A-7F StrikeFighter too. With no F-16 sales to be endangered, Lavi goes forward too.
If the Hornet is also absent, I see Canada and Australia definitely going for either F-14 or F-15. Maybe the USMC will also get to keep their almost-realized 'Cat squadrons? Naval variant of A-7F is a given, unless it's a naval machine to begin with. Spain and Finland, anyone's guess. Switzerland, depending on the year of decision, either Viggen or Gripen, or even AV-8B+ Harrier.