Getting Gripens to Ukraine - Scenarios
This is a lead-in to a profile (in the next post) ...
___________________________________________
Scenario 1: Sweden surrenders some Gripen fighters from Flygvapnet stocks. [1] At present, Sweden has tied delivery of Gripens to Ukraine to accession to NATO (presumably hoping that their future allies will put pressure on Turkey rather than pointlessly pandering to Erdogan).
This is the most probable RW scenario for the appearance of Saab JAS Gripen fighters in Ukraine. Sweden diverts some of the Gripen C fighters from their planned Flygvapnet upgrade programme and redirects them to Ukraine.
___________________________________________
Scenario 2: The Czech government releases its fleet of 14 x Gripens for use in Ukraine.
Prague had been in discussions to extend their lease of 14 x Gripens. Instead a joint US-Swedish offer was accepted to replace these aircraft with a larger number of F-16 fighters from US ANG stocks. Under this deal, the 20 x Czech Air Force F-16Cs are due to serve until the arrival of 24 x F-35As. All CzAF 'Zmije' ('Vipers') will be single-seaters. Czech pilot-training on F-16Ds will occur under USAF auspices at Morris ANG base in Tucson, AZ.
___________________________________________
Scenario 3: Leased Hungarian Air Force Gripens are surrendered for use in Ukraine.
In late September 2023, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán announced that Hungary was in no rush to approve Sweden's bid to join NATO. By way of response, the government of Sweden reversed its January 2012, approval for a lease extension on Hungarian Gripens to 2026. Effective 31 October 2023, supplies of Swedish spares and services were cancelled.
No compensation was given but Sweden offered to pay for the return of Magyar Légiero (HunAF) Gripens. The offer was left open until its expiry date of 30 November 2023. On Monday, 27 November, the Országgyulés approved payment terms for the return of all 14 x HunAF Gripens.
Swedish pilots collected the HunAF lease aircraft from Kecskemét AB to fly the 600 km hop to Poland's 23 Baza Lotnicza just east of Minsk Mazowiecki. Ukrainian pilots previously trained on Gripens in Sweden then picked up their new mounts at 23 BL for transfer to unspecified operational air bases in Ukraine.
___________________________________________
Scenario 4: Saab buys back Gripens from South African
After several years where SAAF Gripens were all inoperable due to spares shortage, a maintenance plan was agreed for the 13 x airframes in flying or near-flyable condition. To help fund this package, Pretoria agreed to Sweden's request to buy-back the 12 x South African Gripens held in long-term storage. The SAAF would retain 13 of these fighters in flying condition until they could be replaced by a new fighter aircraft type. At that point, the remaining 13 x Gripens would also be sold back to Saab.
While Saab refurbished the first dozen ex-SAAF Gripens for use in Ukraine, South Africa closed a deal with Indian brokers to purchase mothballed MiG-29s from Malaysia. Under this deal, 16 x ex-TUDM MiG-29S fighters were bought. Partially disassembled at RMAF Kuantan, the MiG-29 airframes were flown out by Indian Air Force IL-76MD Gajraj airlifters. Their initial destination was the IAF's No.11 Base Repair Depot at Ojhar (near Nashik, NE of Mumbai). In the meantime, SAAF pilots had been flight-training on IAF MiG-29UBs while South African maintenance crews - SAAF and civilian - had been familiarizing themselves with the MiG airframe.
At No.11 BRD, under the aegis of HAL, a dozen of the ex-TUDM fighters were overhauled and given a partial MiG-29UPG upgrade (the other 6 airframes were upgraded to full MiG-29UPG2 standards for delivery to the IAF). Once the upgrades were complete, experienced Indian pilots flew the 12 x MiG-29SA [3] fighters on a test-run south to Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala. The dozen fighters were then flown non-stop from TRV to South Africa accompanied by two IAF IL-78MKI in-flight refuelling tankers of No. 78 Squadron. [4] Upon arrival at SAAF AFB Makhado at Louis Tri in Limpopo, the twelve MiG-29SA fighters were officially turned over to South Africa.
___________________________________________
[1] Currently, the Flygvapnet operates 71 x Gripen C fighters and 23 x Gripen D 2-seaters.
[2] The leased CzAF Gripens are to serve alongside lighter Aero L-159 ALCAs.
[3] This MiG-29SA designation had previously been applied to a Slovak upgrade package but these aircraft had all been transferred to Ukraine in 2023. As upgrade by HAL/IAF, the MiG-29SAs lacked the UPG's advanced weapon control systems and EW suite as well as UPG22's AESA radar.
[4] SAAF pilots and support staff - now fully-trained on the MiG-29 - returned to South Africa aboard the two IL-78 FRA.
