Trade, Tariffs, and Trump

[apophenia]

Of necessity, the opening posts of this thread will mainly be of a political/economic nature. Profiles and descriptions of alternative procurements begin in Part 4. Forum members less interested in politics and economic policy may wish to jump directly to Part 4.

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Opening Moves in the Trump Tariff War with Canada - Part 1

On 10 Feb 2025, US President Donald Trump's flurry of executive orders imposed his threatened 25% tariff on imported Canadian steel and aluminum. This action contravened the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement - a revised free trade treaty brought about at Trump's own insistance during his first administration. Under USCMA section 232, ending exemptions to tariffs required 6 months of negotiations. Under Chapter 31 (Dispute Settlement), Canada could challenge the US for not abiding by the terms of USCMA. But that treaty is scheduled for joint review in 2026 anyway. This was just Trump's first move.

Instead, under incoming Prime Minister Mark Carney, is was decided to simply countervail that 25% tariff. However, special US Trade Negotiation Envoy Chrystia Freeland announced that these tariffs would also extend to all manufactured goods imported from the US which contained a majority of components (by weight) composed of steel and aluminum. At the same time, countervailing duties imposed an effective export-ban to the US of select, strategic mining/smelting products - including: iron ore, alumina, cobalt, nickel, graphite, indium, and lithium. [1]

Simultaneously, was an announcement of revised Public Services and Procurement Canada rules which prohibited procurement contract winners from passing on their new 25% penalties on equipment (or components) made primarily from US steel or aluminum. As was anticipated, one result was hoards of Sparks Street law firms filing suit on behalf of their American corporate clients. However, this outcome had already been anticipated by the Government of Canada (GoC). Ottawa issued a Article XV 6-month notice to withdraw from the World Trade Organization. [2] In the meantime, remaining WTO authority in Canada would be subject to approval by Canada's Supreme Court. [3]

Tariff War Consequences - Intended and Otherwise

With most avenues for legal suits tied off, the GoC instituted its policies for softening the economic damage done to the Canadian economy. As expected, the steepest falls were in the automotive and aerospace sectors. Ottawa expected both sectors to return to core competencies as quickly as possible: Completely cross-border supply-train reliant industries were on their own. In aerospace, Ottawa would focus on supporting MRO, smaller airframers (from Viking to Volatus), and component-makers for existing Canadian aircraft types. Firms reliant on the US market - from CAE to Héroux-Devtek - would take a major hit on lost exports. But the big losers were Montréal-area airframers Airbus Canada (A220 airliner) and Bombardier (Challenger and Global series bizjets) who would receive no bailouts from Ottawa. [4]

The tit-for-tat tariff war resulted in many standing order contracts had become non-compliant under new Public Services and Procurement Canada rules. With so much of modern aerospace dependant upon machined steel and aluminum components, this industry would be hit hardest of all. This would prove doubly true for military procurement contracts held with the Department of National Defence. Not only were many planned import procurements now non-compliant (due to 'unfair' trade practices), US-owned subsidiaries in Canada - like GDLS-C and Colt Canada - were also struggling.

(To be continued ...)

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[1] These countervails would be followed, incrementally, by similar duties on US-destined export chemicals (with potash/KCl being covered by both mineral and chemical rulings) as well as lumber and other forestry by-products.

[2] This would be the last act of Canada's supposedly 'Permanent Mission' to the World Trade Organization before it was formally withdrawn from Geneva.

[3] At the same time, Cabinet readied a Bill which tied any legal action resulting from trade disputes to a successful USCMA Chapter 31 dispute settlement. But Canada's Chapter 31 submission would only be submitted when the US Administration had demonstrated good faith by reversing its contravention of USCMA section 232 and withdrawing its illegal tariffs.

[4] However, both airframers would receive support packages from the Gouvernement du Québec. Overall, the effect was as predicted. Canadian aerospace and defence industry earnings had sat at -4.34% in 2024. By the middle of 2026, they had dropped to -26.75%.

[apophenia]

Side-Effects: Procurement Forestalled & Military Disengagement - Part 2

Along with legal threats, the Government of Canada (GoC) also received counter-claims of non-compliance to contracts from various potential suppliers. The first was from Lockheed Martin on behalf of the now-frozen Future Fighter Capability Project. But the GoC already regarded the FFCP contract in arrears and the purchase (and, thus, delivery) of F-35s to Canada was considered 'frozen'. Since this 'frozen' contract and its delivery schedue was, effectively, in limbo, the Supreme Court refused to hear submissions from LM's legal representatives. This claim/counter-claim dance established a pattern in planned procurements from US military suppliers.

Lockheed Martin's attempted legal actions, pushed forward a scheduled debate in the House of Commons on a proposed Canadian withdrawal from the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). A planned CAD38.6 billion modernisation of NORAD had already been frozen and, now, more than 300 x Canadian personnel in Colorado Springs (including civilian employees and families) were ordered to return to Canada within a fortnight. Another 650 Canadian NORAD personnel at home were ordered to restrict communications with their US counterparts. [1]

Shortly after the NORAD 'returns', more RCAF personnel were called home. This included seconded RCAF members lodging with USN and USAF units as well as instructor and trainee pilots taking part in the so-called Bridge FLIT on USAF T-38 Talons at Sheppard AFB in Texas. The latter withdrawal would have gone all but unnoticed in the US but Washington was not all that happy with Canada's threat to restrict American military access to the Canadian Arctic should the NORAD agreement be officially terminated. [2] And there was more to come.

The Trump Administration continued issuing threats to NATO members spending less than 5% of their GDP on defence procurement. Canada - which spent 1.29% of a promised 2% GDP on defence in 2024 - was in the middle of those crosshairs. Plans had been put in place to raise that number to 1.7% by 2029-30 but there was simply no widespread Canadian political support to actually raise defence spending to 2% quickly ... let alone to spend 5% of Canada's rather substantial GDP. [3] (If anything, Trump's tariffs had made average Canadians even more reluctant to spend on defence.)

Rather than respond directly to US 5% spending demands, the GoC struck another House of Commons All-Parties committee to consider the ramifications (and potential benefits) of Canada withdrawing from NATO. When this official review of Canada's continued membership in the alliance was announced, the expected volley of threats and derisive comments sallied forth from officialdom in Washington, DC. At the same time, however, Ottawa announced its signing on with a new defensive agreement among NB-8 nations. Canada would sign on to BALTS - the Baltic Agreement on Logistics and Tactical Support - as a 'partner force' rather than as an official component of Canada's NATO membership. Nonetheless, membership in BALTS was seen as helping to secure the originally-NATO Canadian deployments to Latvia. Within BALTS, Canadian Armed Forces personnel would later also deploy to Sweden.

Establishing a 'partner' relationship outside of NATO was also the approach used when Canada joined the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). [4] Signing on for JEF was intended to make better use of the RCN's newly-commissioned Protecteur class JSS - which would act as a 'mothership' and AOR for RCN flottila's deploying to the Baltic. This meshed with Halifax class FFHs deployed to bolster a Polish initiative to increase Baltic Sea patrols. There, Canada was also able to leverage its Arctic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle experience, using ISE Explorer class AUVs to monitor Baltic undersea cables. [5]

The GoC was sending mixed messages on military commitment ... and that was quite intentional.

(To be continued ...)

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[1] Further orders followed which eliminated all airshow appearances as well as combined air exercises by the RCAF and USAF. Similarly, the Canadian Navy and Canadian Coast Guard were to cancel all scheduled exercises and cooperative operations conducted with the US Navy and US Coast Guard.

[2] With Canadian Armed Forces participation in NORAD reduced to an absolute minimum, Ottawa never needed to proceed with a notice to withdraw from the pact. A similar approach would be taken to Trump's demands for NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP on defence procurement.

[3] See: The Fiscal Implications of Meeting the NATO Military Spending Target, PBO, Ottawa, 30 Oct 2024.
-- https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publications/RP-2425-020-S--fiscal-implications-meeting-nato-military-spending-target--repercussions-financieres-atteinte-cible-depenses-militaires-fixee-otan

[4] Ottawa regarded membership in BALTS as part-and-parcel of joining the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force. However, a full commitment to JEF had to wait until British PM Keir Starmer had exhausted all hope of establishing a 'special relationship' with Donald Trump. A looming Canadian constitutional crisis regarding the Monarchy was averted when lengthy delays in fixing a date made clear that this proposed "second state visit" would never occur. Shortly thereafter, Canada joined the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force.

[5] This monitoring role was rather different from the Persistent Maritime Surveillance approach used in Canada's Arctic waters. In the Baltic, Explorer AUVs were used both for active patrols along undersea cables as well 'hibernating' along those lines (to save battery life), 'reviving' only when certain  activities (such as anchor-dragging) was detected.

[apophenia]

Rapid Revision - New Realities in Military Procurement - Part 3

Although overall relations between the GoC and The Boeing Company had been poor for some time, DND had managed to push through a P-8A Poseidon purchase to fill its Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft (CMMA) requirement. More than CAD8 Billion was committed to buy up to 16 x Poseidon to replace in-service RCAF CP-140M Aurora patrol aircraft. But, within 6 months, DND was asking for another CAD5 Billion to cover the cost of airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft. [1] However, the GoC response to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs would scupper both of these procurement plans. [2]

With multiple Project Management Offices at NDHQ thrown into turmoil, Parliament began planning for subsitutes and interim solutions to Canada's procurement issues. The first move was to separate the Standing Committee on National Defence (NDDN) from shorter-term procurement planning. This would become the purview of a newly-established Standing Committee on Defence Procurement (DPAMD). [3] Within a climate of aggressive US tariffs and 'jokey' mentions of a '51st State', DPAMD proved much toothier than the NDDN of old. This was reflected in the DPAMD's priority recommendations for the CMMA programme and the AEW requirement.

Interim Solutions for Insoluable Problems

The new Standing Committee on Defence Procurement's first proclamation was that interim procurements were to be pursued on the most pressing issues. Interim procurement choices would be weighted on general requirement fit, overall cost (now assuming only 10 years of active service), deliverability (with speed of that delivery as a subset), reliability of supplier(s), and the percentage of 'Canadian-Content'. The first interim procurement project sought to fill in for both the Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft programme and the Airborne Early Warning aircraft project. However, with the CP-140M Aurora fleet having been recently upgraded, the order of priority for the AEW and CMMA would be reversed within the interim procurement plans.

Since procuring anything from Boeing was out of the question for the moment, the scope of the AEW requirement would also be scaled back. This approach resulted in what became DND's iCMMA-ISR project for an Interim Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft specialised in the Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance role. A small procurement was planned and commonality with new maritime patrol airframes was highly valued. That was not quite as restrictive as it sounds, since the MPA requirement was now also to be divided between coastal (ie: East, West, and Arctic) and open-ocean patrol (ie: ensuring the sealanes between Eastern Canada and Iceland. [4]

(To be continued ...)

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[1] Just as the CMMA requirement had been written around the desired P-8A, RCAF AEW plans were also created around a related Boeing airframe - the E-7 Wedgetail.

[2] Canada's recent Defence Policy Update also covered proposed procurements of 88 x F-35A fighters, 9 x CC-330 Husky Multi-role Tanker Transports, and 11 x MQ-9B SkyGuardian UAS. Of these plans, only the underway delivery of Airbus A330-based CC-330s would be uneffected.

[3] Within Hansard and GoC documents, DPAMD stood for the (Standing Committee on) Defence Procurement/(Comité permanent des) achats de matériel de défense. Despite its reduced scope, DNND still stood for the (Standing Committee on) National Defence/(Comité permanent de la) défense nationale.

[4] Britain's RAF would retain responsibility for patrolling the rest of the so-called 'GIUK gap'.

[apophenia]

Interim ISR as the new AEW Procurement - Part 4

As DND's proposed CAD5B (USD 3.65B) AEW&C aircraft acquisition was folded into the new Interim Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft - Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (iCMMA-ISR) project, it was also simplified. With the future of air defence cooperation with the USAF in question, the NORAD component of the AEW&C requirement was quietly dropped. So too was a demand for 'interchangeable' with former 'Five Eyes' allies (originally written into the spec to favour the desired Boeing E-7A Wedgetail platform). This all but ensured the success of Saab's Bombardier Global 6000-based iCMMA-ISR submission.

From a Canadian procurement perspective, having only one option was even worse than having too many. No-one doubted the excellent characteristics of the Saab GlobalEye as a submission for the AEW component of iCMMA-ISR (aka 'iCMMA-1'). However, it was the mandate of Public Services and Procurement Canada to oversee a fair and transparent cometition - not a single-sourcing contract award. From PSPC's point-of-view, a surprise last-minute 'iCMMA-1' submission by Marshall Aerospace Canada was a God-send. Now that Saab faced a rival candidate, a proper iCMMA-ISR/AEW competition could be run.

Project Dolphin Goes to the Great White North

As the name of the Marshall Dolphin submission suggests, this submission was derived from the Project Dolphin aircraft developed by QinetiQ and the Marshall Aerospace and Defence Group for the United Arab Emirates. Project Dolphin was based around the same Bombardier Global 6000 airframe as the Saab submission. The difficulty was that Project Dolphin was a Elint/Sigint platform rather than an early warning type. Thus, the challenge for Marshall Aerospace Canada and its 'Team Dolphin' partners was to convince DND and the RCAF that their submission could be quickly and successfully re-equipped for the AEW/ISR roles demanded for the iCMMA-ISR requirement.

Marshall Aerospace Canada saw value in having a Project Dolphin demonstrator aircraft appearing at the air shows in Canada. Once its parent firm and the 'Team Dolphin' partners were convinced, a Global 6000 conversion was flown over from Cambridge, UK. Such was the hast that this demonstrator wasn't even painted for its appearance at the Comox Armed Forces Day show. [1] However, the somewhat scruffy-looking demonstrator had served its purpose - generating a 'buzz' in the Canadian media (including Canada's aviation press) and amongst RCAF personnel. Had 'Team Dolphin' been presenting a true AEW/ISR platform, their air show appearances would have been a tough act to follow. But Saab proved up to the task.


Top: Team GlobalEye's Saab GlobalEye 'iCMMA-1' demonstrator based on a Bombardier Global 6000 bizjet. (Saab assumed that any winning submission would be based on new-production Global 6500 airframes.)

Bottom: Team Dolphin's 'iCMMA-1' demonstrator also based on a converted Bombardier Global 6000 bizjet. (The Marshall Dolphin submission was for an appropriately-equipped AEW platform but the Dolphin demonstrator was actually fitted-out for the SIGINT role.)

Saab GlobalEye - Demos and Curve-Balls

Playing catch up, 'Team GlobalEye' also dispatched a demonstrator airframe to Canada. As with the Project Dolphin, the Saab GlobalEye conversion was also initially unpainted. The key difference was that the GlobalEye demonstrator was a fully-functioning early warning platform ideally suited to the 'iCMMA-1' requirement. But 'Team GlobalEye' had another move to make in what was already an unfair fighter - they were offering immediate RCAF access to GlobalEye airframes. With that offer, 'Team GlobalEye' had effectively clinched the 'iCMMA-1' deal.

Deals and offers aside, the Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft had merits of its own. Obviously, it was based upon a Canadian-made airframe - the Bombardier Global 6000. Mounted above that platform was a cabin-top Ericsson Erieye ER (Extended Range) AESA radar system (as well as other sensors and EW equipment). At altitude - even while still flying in Swedish airspace - the performance of the Erieye ER radar system was impressive. With it, GlobalEye could monitor Russian naval activity as far away as Kaliningrad or St. Petersburg [2] But, of course, most GlobalEye missions were actually flown well out over the Baltic Sea, extending the Erieye ER's surveillance range considerably further into Russian territory.

As a 'partner force' participating in BALTS (the Baltic Agreement on Logistics and Tactical Support), RCAF personnel had been exposed to Swedish Flygvapnet operations with the GlobalEye. Now the RCAF was being offered hands-on experience. In a nutshell, the 'Team GlobalEye' offer consisted of  components. The first was combined-crew training with Swedish personnel at Malmen AB (outside Linköping). The second was the loan of operational GlobalEye for RCAF use within BALTS. Those 'loaners' would then be replaced by new GlobalEye conversions specifically tailored to meet iCMMA-ISR specifications. Such terms proved impossible to resist. The 'loaner' GlobalEyes entered RCAF service as their new Saab CE-260A Sentinelle multi-mission ISR type. [3]

(To be continued ...)

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[1] After its Comox appearance, C-GEWA flew on to Southport for the Manitoba Air Show. Upon its return to YXX, the demonstrator would be rolled into the paint shop of another Abbotsford-based 'Team Dolphin' partner - Cascade Aerospace - where it was sprayed in an RCAF-mimicking 2-tone grey scheme which cleverly integrated a dolphin theme on the fuselage. This paint job was only completed the evening before the aircraft's display flight at the Abbotsford International Air Show.

[2] From 9,100 m (30,000 feet) above Visby (on Gotland), GlobalEye could monitor Russian surface ships in Baltiysk harbour and air traffic over all of Kaliningrad Oblast. At 10,000 m (35,000 feet) above Stockholm, the Leningrad Naval Base at Saint Petersburg and nearby Levashovo AB could be surveilled.

[3] The 'loaner' CE-260A Sentinelles were assigned to 420 (Snowy Owl) Squadron RCAF which was reformed for the purpose. No 420 operated as a lodger unit alongside 74:e specialflygskvadron - the Flygvapnet's GlobalEye-equipped unit - at Malmen AB (ESCF) at Malmslätt, Linköping, in south central Sweden. There, 420's Sentinelle operated as part of BaltPat (Baltic Patrol Force), an aerial compenent of BALTS.

[apophenia]

'Medium MPA' - the First Interim CMMA Contest - Part 5

The maritime patrol component of Canada's Interim CMMA (iCMMA) Project to replace the RCAF's aging-out CP-140M Aurora fleet came in two parts. The first component (aka 'iCMMA-2') would be the 'medium' airframe MPA type  - now heavily-weight in favour of a Bombardier Global 6000 base due to AEW 'iCMMA-1' having been satisfied by the Saab GlobalEye. This 'iCMMA-2' was considered a 'medium MPA' but would emphasise sovereignty patrol over the ASW role as well as taking over most of the CP-140s' ISR duties. Any 'medium MPA' would be restricted in capabilities (as compared with the larger in-service CP-140M or its planned 'iCMMA-3' replacement. But the Saab GlobalEye procurement had made the 'iCMMA-2' component the low-hanging fruit.

Although the chosen platform for 'iCMMA-2' was a foregone conclusion, the industrial mix was unexpected. A modelling exercise performed by the National Research Council (NRC) - with the assistance of the Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) - had suggested that the best results could be had by combining the features of the two anticipated submissions. Those were the front-running Saab Swordfish and the domestic PAL Aerospace P-6 MPA proposal. As a result of the NRC/DRDC studies, NDHQ requested that the rival groups - Team Swordfish and Team Global Patrol - to work together on a joint submission.

"When you're with me, baby, the skies'll be blue"

Under the new scheme, Team Swordfish - led by Saab AB and Bombardier Aviation - would be lead contractor and systems integrator while Team Global Patrol - led by PAL Aerospace and De Havilland Canada - would be responsible for the design and construction of the ventral 'pannier'. Although this alliance eliminated much of the open competition from the 'iCMMA-2' contest, based on technical merit gauged by DND, Public Services and Procurement Canada was prepared to give a waiver on competition. The result was a Swordfish/P-6 MPA hybrid jointly submitted for 'iCMMA-2' by Saab and PAL. This submission was accepted and entered RCAF service as the Bombardier CP-260B Baffin.

In effect, the CP-260B Baffin was essentially a Saab Swordfish fitted with PAL's longer ventral 'pannier' which incorporating both search radar radome and a small weapons bay. Less noticeable was that, under DND instruction, the platform shifted from new-production Global 6500 airframes to refurbished Global 6000s. The latter were trade-ins to Bombardier which were stripped and rationalised before conversion to full CP-260B Baffin standards. The first Baffin 'B' production conversions entered service with 415 Long Range Patrol Force Development Squadron at CFB Greenwood, NS.

Bottom: Saab CE-260A Sentinelle AEW/SIGINT aircraft of No 420 (Snowy Owl) Squadron RCAF, Malmen AB, Sweden. [Inset] 420's Snowy Owl emblem as emblazoned on the CE-260A's winglet.

Top: Bombardier CP-260B Baffin 'medium MPA' assigned to the 415 Long Range Patrol Force Development Squadron for service trials at CFB Greenwood. Note the Saab 15 Spear anti-ship missile hung from the underwing pylon. [1]

(To be continued ...)

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[1] In Swedish service, these missiles are known as the RBS 15 Mk.IV Gungnir. Gungnir, the spear of the god Óðinn in Norse mythology, was known to always strike its target.

[apophenia]

"Le client n'a jamais tort" Provides an Opportunity

Air Canada subsidiary Rouge specialised in low-cost tourist flights to US destinations - Fort Lauderdale; Miami; Phoenix, Palm Springs, San Diego, etc. So, when the Canadian market for market for cross-border leisure travellers crumped, Rouge found itself in serious economic difficulty. Air Canada decided to retire all 18 x Airbus A319-100 series aircraft assigned to its Rouge subsidiary. The Rouge fleet would then standardise on the larger A320s and A321s. Canadian North made inquiries (with the object of replacing its B737 fleet) but funding issues scuppered any chance of a deal. Feelers were then put out to Rouge rival Westjet but with a fleet dominated by Boeing 737 NGs, Calgary-based Westjet had no interest in picking up these Air Canada 'left-overs'. [1]

Reverting to its earlier 'flag-carrier' behaviour, Air Canada appealed to the Government of Canada (GoC) in Ottawa for a bail-out. After examining the potential resale market, Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada recommended against trying to find a bulk buyer for 18 x Rouge A319s. Instead, the lowest-hour airframes would be placed for sale first. All eight of these aircraft found buyers in Europe fairly quickly. With little prospect of finding a good return on the older A319s, it was then decided that the GoC would take over the entire Rouge A319 fleet - in a deal similar to the decades old purchase which led to Airbus A310s entering Canadian military service as the CC-150 Polaris. The terms of this new deal committed Air Canada to provide the GoC with A319 heavy MRO services at a steep discount. [2]

Having assumed ownership of 10 x Airbus A319-100 airliners, new roles were sought for these aircraft. One was assigned to Field Aviation of Mississauga, ON, for trial purposes. Another pair were delivered to the RCAF as Airbus CC-319A Arcturus with dual airlifter and crew trainer roles. During the summer months, the CT-319As would be operated almost exclusively in the North on resupply missions. But that was not the reason for naming these aircraft after a bright northern star. The previous bearer of that name had been the CP-140A Arcturus which also operated as crew trainers - but for the CP-140 Aurora fleet.

Northern Light or Poor-Man's Poseidon?

DND made cursory examinations of the Kawasaki P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and the Airbus PATMAR concept for France's Aéronavale. The Japanese option was quickly eliminated both for its high cost and because of constitutional challenges with exporting military equipment. The French PATMAR had yet to reach the hardware stage but it was tailored for the brand-new Airbus A321XLR airframe. The unit price for the base model of the new Airbus A321XLR is CAD 150 million (USD 103.84M or € 99.95M). By comparison, the average CAD 20 million paid for ex-Rouge A319s seemed like a bargain. So, the new Standing Committee on Defence Procurement's question for Field Aviation was: Can those A319s be economically turned into replacements for the 'frozen' P-8A Poseidons?

After consultation with Airbus Industrie, Field reported that the planned PATMAR sensors and systems could not be readily accommodated by the shorter A319 airframe. And since the equipment fit for the planned A321 MPA derivative had yet to be finalised, Airbus was also reluctant to provide costs for those sensors and systems. Still, Airbus Industrie was willing to cooperate by sharing details of its now shelved A320 MPA plans. However, with the Canadian economy being hammered by US tariffs, even that warmed-over A320 MPA kit seemed beyond reach. Field Aviation needed a fresh approach.

"On the Field of Mars ..." - Ambling towards Arcturus

The solution proposed by Field Aviation was not complex but nor was it simple. In a nutshell, Field suggested the re-use of the recently upgraded sensors and systems from the CP-140M - the Aurora Incremental Modernisation Programme (AIMP). As refurbished A319 airframes because ready, each would receive AIMP equipment taken from a decommissioned CP-140M. This concept would be tested aboard Field's test-mule - ex-Rouge A319-113 msn 672 (formerly C-FYJH) - before beginning full 'production conversions' for service MPAs. DND accepted this proposal and Field received a contract to deliver 9 x Airbus CP-319B Arcturus MPA conversions.

As project lead of 'Team MPA319', Field Aviation partnered with Airbus Defence & Space Canada and KF Aerospace. The latter stripped out A319 cabin fittings and other airline-related accoutrements at their Hamilton, ON, facility. The former opened a new conversion plant at Kitchener/Waterloo Airport (YKF) in southern Ontario. There, A319-113 msn 672 (re-registered as C-GMMA) was incrementally modified by Airbus to test Field Aviation's MPA conversion concept.

(To be continued ...)

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[1] Westjet would come to regret that decision as imported Boeing spares became both more expensive and increasingly difficult to access.

[2] Air Canada staff would be responsible for basic airframe and engine maintenance. Any government-fitted equipment was to be dealt with by RCAF personnel detached from 14 Air Maintenance Squadron at CFB Greenwood.

[apophenia]

'Strategic MPA' - Outcome of the Second Interim CMMA Contest

Field Aviation's testbed A319 was first fitted with a shortened version of the ventral 'gondola' designed for the French Airbus A321 MPA. Then, C-GMMA was kitted out with CP-140M style maritime patrol and communications radomes. Only once aerodynamic tested was completed were actual AIMP radars and other sensors installed in the Airbus. As a test platform. A319-113 msn 672 performed sterling service in test-fitting equipment intended for the 'iCMMA-3' conversion programme.

The first fully military A319 MPA conversion entered RCAF service as the Airbus CP-319B Arcturus in 2026 and began a mix of operational patrols and familiarisation flights. Completion of further conversions proceeded at a leisurely pace ... but that was intentional. The transfer of upgraded AIMP systems from CP-140M Auroras took place on a one-at-a-time basis in order to maintain 18 x RCAF MPAs in service at any given time. With the arrival of CP-260A Baffin 'medium MPAs' in service, that pace could be quickened. Towards the end of 2028, the last active CP-140Ms were finally stood down. [1] By the Summer of 2029, all 9 x CP-319B Arcturus MPA conversions were in active service.

The last CP-319B conversions were of the two CC-319A Arcturus trainer/transports. As those final conversions began, the testbed A319 C-GMMA would finally enter RCAF service - as the sole CP-319C Arcturus. In this guise, A319-113 msn 672 took on the OCU role from the withdrawn CC-319As (but not their secondary transport role). Eventually another A319 was dry-leased as the CC-319D Arcturus to take over much of the flight crew training duties. Eventually, the CP-319C timed out and was retired. However, the CC-310D lasted until the CP-319B Arcturus fleet began to be replaced by new-build Airbus CP-320B Argus MPA/ISR aircraft later in the 2030s. [2]

(Fin)

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[1] As each CP-140M was retired and shown of its sensors, the airframe was stored at CFB Mountain View. Later, most of the demilitarised CP-140Ms would be converted into waterbombers by KF Aerospace, a division of Kelowna Flightcraft Ltd.

[2] The name Argus was chosen to honour the Canadian-made Canadair CP-107 MPA of the 1950s. In ancient Greek mythology, the many-eyed Argos Panoptes was meant to be the perfect guardian.

[upnorth]

Interesting stuff, I'll be following to see where you take it.

[Old Wombat]

Interesting stuff, I'll be following to see where you take it.

Yup!

But don't get too isolationist (yes, I know, agreements to bypass US involvement) & don't forget the Commonwealth of Nations! ... Well, some of it.

[GTX_Admin]

 

I wonder if future additions might include the following:

• New trainers - say M346s but re-engined to remove the US sourced F124s, just not sure with what though.  Possibly a new version of the Adour?
• New fighters - say Eurofighter Typhons or Saab Gripen E/Fs - again with the latter being re-engined to remove the F414s.  Say with EJ200

[The Big Gimper]

And maybe this as well:

Canada Seeking Multiple Types For Tactical Rotorcraft Need

It will be hard to replace the Chinook and Griffon.
Possible a new EU consortium could come with a clean designs for both.
Replace the CH-148 with a Made in Canada AW-101 variant.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AgustaWestland_AW101
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_EC725

[GTX_Admin]

Revive the Eurocopter HTH?

[apophenia]

Thanks for all your responses, folks!

... don't get too isolationist ... & don't forget the Commonwealth of Nations! ... Well, some of it.

For sure, Guy. Speaking of isolation, the RW Premier of British Columbia has a backup plan. Naturally, he is trying to maintain BC's good relations with WA and OR and trade connections (mainly electrical power) with CA. But AK (outside of Juneau) is strongly Red State - especially Fairbanks. The road connection is the Alaska Highway (ALCAN) which ends at Delta Junction, AK, 150 km SE of Fairbanks (and 100 km SE of Eielson AFB).

The thing is, the Canadian-owned section of the Alaska Highway (BC Hwy 97) begins at Dawson Creek. That gives Premier Eby the option of placing toll-booths at the 'Mile 0 City' starting point (without effecting the BC/WA 49th parallel border crossing points). Economically, WA won't get too upset about such a move - the only AK alternative supply route is by ferry from Seattle.

Commonwealth of Nations: Yeah, as you say: "some of it!" Right now, Cdn relations with Modi's India are at rock bottom and South Africa has alligned its loyalties with BRICS while denying RU war crimes. As I mentioned in my story, the UK's 'second state visit' invite to Trump was a blow. That fawning may have begun with Starmer but the letter was sign by the King of Canada. In that, Charles III has done no favours for support of the Monarchy in Canada.

The GoC has been trying to expand trade with Europe for decades. And now seems an ideal moment to flaunt Canada's ability to supply Europe with the energy and raw materials to create steel and aluminum for European rearmament. Expansion of trade with the Antipodes also makes great sense ... although that will largely be determined by how Oz and NZ deal with the US.

[apophenia]

I wonder if future additions might include the following:

• New trainers - say M346s but re-engined to remove the US sourced F124s, just not sure with what though.  Possibly a new version of the Adour?
• New fighters - say Eurofighter Typhons or Saab Gripen E/Fs - again with the latter being re-engined to remove the F414s.  Say with EJ200

Yes, new RCAF trainers and fighters get quite tricky ... especially fighters (since DND has previously rejected Gripens and Typhoons. The choice of trainers will be of most interest to me but I doubt that it will be the M-346. The issue is trade relations with Italy.

In the past few years, Italy has been dumping food products in the Canadian market. (And we consumers have benefited from cheaper, higher-quality goods - yum!) But this dumping has also increased our trade deficit with Italy, a nation which has refused to ratify CETA (the Canada-EU free trade deal) because of ... food (ipocriti e bastardi)!

Canada has a trade deficit with South Korea as well. But we also have an incentive to maintain good relations because of pending LNG deliveries (especially now that Trump is toying with an LNG export 'deal' from AK). Anyway, that definitely puts the KAI T-50 near the top of any FFLIT candidate list. And non-US T-50 engine alternatives already exist in the form of the Eurojet EJ200.

If an EJ200-powered T-50 was chosen for FFLIT, that informs the fighter contest. DND has said that the Eurofighter is excessively expensive but Saab has never shown any serious interest in the EJ200 for its Gripen. Of course, Sweden must also now renegotiate its relationship with the US. So, the powerplant type for future Flyvapnet Gripens won't be entirely in Saab's hands.

[apophenia]

And maybe this as well:

Canada Seeking Multiple Types For Tactical Rotorcraft Need

It will be hard to replace the Chinook and Griffon.
Possible a new EU consortium could come with a clean designs for both.
Replace the CH-148 with a Made in Canada AW-101 variant.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AgustaWestland_AW101
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_EC725

Carl: Love your idea for made-in-Canada AW101s ... or, at least, final assembly in Canada. Here, there is an opportunity to switch to RTM322 powerplants. I can see a Merlin-like CH-149B Petrel replacing CH-148s and CH-149C Chimos taking over some of the CH-147Fs' roles. Then, later, a new CH-149S Cormorant to replace the original CT7-powered Model 511/CH-149s.

For a direct CH-146 replacement, I would favour a locally-made Airbus H175. The H175 is a bit bigger than the Griffon but still PT6-powered (albeit PT6C-67E versus TwinPak). Average unit cost for civil H175s is only 40% that of an EC725. I would propose that savings be applied to an H135M light utility buy (since base model H135/EC135 trainers are already scheduled to be built at Fort Erie).

That leaves a potential replacement for the other CH-147F roles. Frankly I have no answers for that ... although I do love the idea of a Skycrane-type development from the AW101 

[apophenia]

Springing off from Reply #13 ... this is actually an old one - the KAI CT-250A Golden Eagle satifying the RCAF's Future Fighter Lead-In Training (FFLIT) programme.

Image CT-250A Golden Eagle of 420 Fighter Lead-In Training Squadron, 15 Wing Moose Jaw. Standard finish for CT-250As is all-over Light Grey (FS 36375) with Medium Grey (FS 35237) for lo-viz markings. A 'Keith Ferris' false canopy is painted on the underside. Note the 3CFFTS badge onthe upper fin.

In this variation on the theme, the CT-250A loaners are followed by full-service, Eurojet EJ200-powered CT-250Cs as lead-in trainers for the RCAF's F-35 replacement, the Eurofighter CF-288 Typhoon.

[Update: Consensus seems to be that the KAI T-50 would have too many ITAR-related US components. So, image deleted to save bandwidth.]

[upnorth]

I like the Kai CT-250. However, I think the fact the Lockheed-Martin is directly involved in the program would preclude any Canadian procurement of the type without American interference even if you do find a way to replace the engine and other American tech in it.

I understnad the points you made about Italy in a previous post, though I would have imagined the Leonardo M-346 as more likely than the T-50 as I think it has less American content in it to replace. I think the biggest job would be to replace the engines, I think a later model Adour would do the job for that.

Considering that the EU is openly on Canada's side on the trade war matter, perhaps that could sway Italy to ratify CETA.

[Litvyak]

Regarding the longer-term on fighters - joining the Tempest programme, perhaps?

[GTX_Admin]

I like the Kai CT-250. However, I think the fact the Lockheed-Martin is directly involved in the program would preclude any Canadian procurement of the type without American interference even if you do find a way to replace the engine and other American tech in it.

I understnad the points you made about Italy in a previous post, though I would have imagined the Leonardo M-346 as more likely than the T-50 as I think it has less American content in it to replace. I think the biggest job would be to replace the engines, I think a later model Adour would do the job for that.

I tend to agree but it is your story Stephen

[apophenia]

Regarding the longer-term on fighters - joining the Tempest programme, perhaps?

Indeed. And perhaps also joining Saab's uncrewed FCAS concept to accompany it (assuming that Saab uncouples from Boeing and dumped the F414).

...I think the fact the Lockheed-Martin is directly involved in the program would preclude any Canadian procurement of the type without American interference...

You are probably right, 'north. And that does push the storyline (IMO) uncomfortably close to the M-346.

Are there other candidate airframes? To Greg's point, I've been taking liberties but I'd still like the story to be at least semi-plausible. But I'm obviously not familiar enough with how much US aerospace industry mycelia is entangled inside non-US airframes.

I do note that the Luftwaffe will be doing pilot training with No.2 FTS at RAAF Pearce. Maybe that example is a way forward for Canada and northern European allies? Of course, those RAAF Hawk 127s will need replacing someday too ... sigh.

I suppose the lesson is that none of this will be easy. I presume that disengaging from yesterday's hegemon never is.

[upnorth]

...I think the fact the Lockheed-Martin is directly involved in the program would preclude any Canadian procurement of the type without American interference...

You are probably right, 'north. And that does push the storyline (IMO) uncomfortably close to the M-346.

Are there other candidate airframes? To Greg's point, I've been taking liberties but I'd still like the story to be at least semi-plausible. But I'm obviously not familiar enough with how much US aerospace industry mycelia is entangled inside non-US airframes.

I don't want to sway you too much, as it is your story, but the only two candidates I can think of off the top of my head are the Aero L-159 ALCA from the Czech Republic or the AIDC T-5 Brave Eagle from Taiwan.

Both aircraft are powered by versions of the F124 engine, like the M-346. As such, I imagine a later model Adour could work as a replacement. Beyond that, I think any other American content is avionics related and replacement could be found or created by the Canadian aviation industry.

While there is American content in both aircraft, I think they are both enough domestic product that America might not be able to interfere if Canada wanted to buy one or the other.

I'm not immediately aware of any conditions in Canadian-Czech trade relations that would preclude the sale of the L-159, but I don't know at all about Canada-Taiwan trade conditions regarding military gear.

[GTX_Admin]

But I'm obviously not familiar enough with how much US aerospace industry mycelia is entangled inside non-US airframes.

For a quick reference try Airframers.net.  Here is an example for the M-346:  https://www.airframer.com/aircraft_detail.html?model=M-346#2

Re engines, it also comes down to dimensions, weight, thrust sfc etc.  for example the EJ200 and/or M88 make plausible substitutes for the F404 while the EJ200 does also for the F414.

I do note that the Luftwaffe will be doing pilot training with No.2 FTS at RAAF Pearce. Maybe that example is a way forward for Canada and northern European allies? Of course, those RAAF Hawk 127s will need replacing someday too ... sigh.

Early 2030s at this stage

[apophenia]

Thanks guys! For terseness, I'll clump together my assessments of the FLIT field (purely from a 2025 CA perspective)

Aero L-159 ALCA upsides: Availability (especially if stored L-159A upgrades* are on the cards)
Aero L-159 ALCA downsides: Existing engine; Aero's Hungarian majority ownership [1]
- * Presenting the option of interim L-159As later replaced by more tailored 'L-159Cs'
- Q: Could the P&WC PW307A be readily squeezed into an existing L-159 airframe? [2]

AIDC T-5 upsides: Twin-engined; RCAF composite airframe experience opportunity
AIDC T-5 downsides: F124 engines (albeit ITEC-made); US components unknown

Boeing-Saab T-7 upsides: Widely considered by allies (and erstwhile/former allies)
Boeing-Saab T-7 downsides: Non-starter (all US systems); perpetual programme delays

HAL HLFT-42 upsides: None obvious
HAL HLFT-42 downsides: Still vapourware; probable RU engine; CA/IN relations currently in toilet

Kawasaki T-4 upsides: JASDF currently looking for replacement; non-US (IHI F3) engines
Kawasaki T-4 downsides: Dealing with JA constitution; current CA trade deficit with JA

Leonardo M-346 upsides: None obvious (perhaps twin-engines & commonality with Poland?)
Leonardo M-346 downsides: CA/IT trade deficits; Meloni's ties to Trump; prior Yak associations

TAI Hürjet upsides: None obvious (perhaps, perennially low-value of the Turkish lira?)
TAI Hürjet downsides: F404 engine; tailored to F-16 lead-in; rogue Turkish foreign policy

Conclusions? Nothing firm and confusion still reigns supreme.

I quite like the idea of a PW307-powered AIDC T-5 ... but maybe just as an Eagle rather than 'Brave Eagle'. [3] The wild card there is the true degree of US entanglement (beyond Eaton Corp., I mean).

I must admit, I'd half-forgotten about the Kawasaki T-4. If the JASDF is serious about replacing them, there may be an opportunity (remember we're talking whif procurement here, not the nightmarish PSPC/DND reality). Going waaay out on a limb, how about after Trump turns the T-7A into a non-starter for the JASDF, JA and CA work together on developing a follow-on, next-gen T-4 variant?

__________________________________

[1] That HSC Aerojet Zrt. majority share could be an issue for the next GoC - assuming that a Carney-led Cabinet would have Ukraine-supporting Freeland returning to high-level ministries (anyway, leadership results should be in later today).

[2] F124 : 28.20 kN (6,300 lbf); L 2590 mm (102.1"); Diam. 91.4 cm (36 in); Dry 521.6 kg (1,050 lb)
PW307A: 28.48 kN (6,402 lbf); L 2062 mm (81.2 in); Diam, 97 cm (38.2 in); Dry 450 kg (990 lb)

[3] OT but I've always found it hilarious that US tourists come to British Columbia to see bald eagles. We have zillions of 'em here. They are fun to watch soaring or salmon-fishing but America's national birds are really squabbling carrion-eaters with voices like a squeaky hinge.

[apophenia]

Can't do much about the CA trade deficit but Japan ...

No, neither can we   

To be fair, the Japanese (business and government) are excellent negotiators. If the JASDF are retiring the T-4s, we may be able to make a deal but it won't be a bargain.

[apophenia]

I thought I'd offer a whif policy direction summary to go with the military procurement stuff...
____________________________________

Mentioned already was Canada's 'pausing' of involvement in the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD). With President Trump normalising relations with Putin's Russia, any continuation of NORAD became utterly pointless. The final step was for Canada to withdraw even essential CAF personnel from the formally binational NORAD military command structure. In theory, Treaty-dictated Canadian military personnel were meant to eventually return to Colorado Springs but that never happened

Canadian involvement in the Permanent Joint Board on Defence was also suspended. Notice was also given to end Canadian participation in the Defence Production Sharing Agreement but, in reality, DPSA was dead the moment that he Trump administration applied tariffs to Canadian steel and aluminum.

Clamp-Down at the Canadian Borders

Part of Trump's demands on Ottawa was that it increase security on the Canada-US borders. It quickly became apparent that such demands were red herrings and the Trump Administration had no intention of straight dealing with Canada. As a result, big changes were put in place along the borders ... just not the sort of advantageous changes that the Trump team had been anticipating.

Canada's Preclearance Act, 2016 ( SC 2017, c. 27) was rescinded. This signalled an end to the Agreement on Land, Rail, Marine, and Air Transport Preclearance between the GoC and Washinton, DC. As a result, all US Customs and Border Protection preclearance facilities in Canada were closed. US-based Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) personnel were ordered home immediately. An exclusion order was draughted allowing up to 60 days before USCBP officers based in Canada had to leave the country.

The NEXUS trusted travelers programme was put on hold (with Canadian NEXUS passholders issued wih application processing fee rebates). This 'hold' first came into effect for 9 x international airport (since travel to the US had already greatly diminished). This was followed by NEXUS services at 396 x marine reporting centres and concluding with 20 x NEXUS land crossings.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) conducts preclearance operations at eight airports in Canada, allowing air travelers to complete immigration, customs, and agriculture procedures before boarding their flights to the United States. The 2015 Agreement on Land, Rail, Marine, and Air Transport Preclearance Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada, which entered into force in August 2019, provides the legal framework and reciprocal authorities necessary for each country’s preclearance officers to carry out security, facilitation, and inspection processes in the other country.

Also effected by a clamp-down at the borders were committees and routine meetings including the cessation of the Cross Border Crime Forum, the North American Drug Dialogue (addressing the opioid crisis), and the more general High-Level Policy Review Group. A rare survivor in these programme cuts was 'Ship Rider', aka the Integrated Cross-Border Maritime Law Enforcement Operations (ICMLEO) however Canada now chose to define 'shared waterways' in its strictest possible meaning. .

Alliances, Alignments, and Arctic Antagonism

Much of the planning behind the 23 Feb 2021 Roadmap for a Renewed U.S.-Canada Partnership went out the window with the election of Donald Trump. [1] The new administration had no intention of honouring US climate change amelioration promised. Nor did the new Cabinet in Ottawa see any future security in further expanding cooperation on continental defence, particularly "in the Artic". [2] As a result, Ottawa saw no future in the existing U.S.-Canada Arctic Dialogue let alone a need to follow through on plans to expand those invariably fruitless talks. The broader commitments of that Roadmap were also left in tatters.

NATO, of course, was effectively over. It no longer mattered what intentions US foreign policy had for NATO, neither Europe nor Canada viewed Washington as a reliable partner anyway. Canada had already joined BALTS (the Baltic Agreement on Logistics and Tactical Support) as a 'partner force' outside of NATO. Plans remained to join JEF [3] and Ottawa was hopeful that the nascent NEDA (Northern European Defence Alliance) would soon gel as a regional NATO replacement. [4]

Canada also withdrew from or reduced its presence in multinational organisations with permitted the Russian Federation or Belarus to remain as members. This meant a reduced presence at the United Nations. In the general assembly, Canada renounced any future consideration as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council as part of a motion to disband the UNSC (ultimately vetoed by the UNSC 'Permanent 5'). Canada also withdrew from observer status at the UN Human Rights Council - preferring to direct the bulk of its future UN support funding towards the International Criminal Court.

A complete withdrawal was made from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (and its Development Assistance Committee) - specifically because the OECD continued to allow the Russian Federation and Belarus to be members. Canada also withdrew in protest from the Organisation of American States - citing multiple US violations of OAS Article 3. Canada remained in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum but joined with Mexico in condemning current US protectionism as an attack upon the free-trade principles of APEC. Canada had also threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organisation. In the end, however, Canada simply removed itself from the WTO's unbalanced GPA (Agreement on Government Procurement).

The question of how US President Trump might behave on the world stage during the 50th anniversary of the G7 was neatly dodged. As chair, Canada was in a position to announce that the June 2025 summit in Kananaskis would be a meeting of a new G8 - comprised of Australia, Canada, France and Germany (representing the EU), Norway, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. [5] Just as Canada had not been invited to the final meeting of the original G6 in 1975, the US would not be invited to this first meeting of this new G8. Donald Trump would have to find another podium to pontificate from.

_______________________________________________________

[1] Revealingly, the official White House page on the Roadmap is currently showing File 404.
-- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/02/23/roadmap-for-a-renewed-u-s-canada-partnership/

[2] And yes, "Artic" [sic] is a direct quote from a surviving US government source:
-- https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/canada-roadmap-renewed-us-canada-partnership

[3] Plans to join the UK-led JEF (the Joint Expeditionary Force) had been put on hold while British PM Starmer attempted to reform a 'special relationship' with the US. Once rebuffed by Washington, the British government was able to fully and more firmly commit to European security.

[4] NEDA was forming around the nucleus of a Scandinavian pact - NFA (the Nordisk forsvarsalliance, Nordisk forsvarsallianse, or Nordiska försvarsalliansen).

[5] Canada also renounced its membership in the G20.