Author Topic: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan  (Read 1584 times)

Offline Nexus1171

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US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« on: September 29, 2013, 09:02:53 AM »
What would happen if the United States never employed a nuclear bomb on Japan either due to
  • Japan surrendering prior to August 6, 1945
  • Japan surrendering by September 1st to September 15, 1945
How would this have affected the post WW2 era?

Offline Alvis 3.1

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2013, 12:04:29 PM »
Had Japan surrendered before Aug 6, 1945, the USSR would not have been able to invade large areas of Northern China, thus making it more difficult for Mao's forces later on. Territory seized IRL would be not likely to have been readily claimed, so the far Eastern borders of the USSR would be redrawn.

Had things still gone down in a similar way, and the Korean War started by 1950, you'd likely see the USA deploying and using a nuke there, possibly more. Having spent a lot of time, effort and money making the things, they'd be eager to test them under actual combat conditions. This might have spiralled quickly out of control, as the Soviets had gleaned enough data from the US during WWII to make their own nukes by then, even though the bombs hadn't been dropped in Japan.

By not using them in WWII, I think it almost certainly would lead to them being used just like any other big bomb in a later conflict, and that would mean the other guys would then use theirs just like a regular bomb too. We'd likely be missing a few European cities by the late 50s. Seeing the utter devastation in Japan was, in my opinion, the best deterrant to use them afterwards.
 The threat of the US using them against the USSR was one of the few things that kept Stalin on a short leash in the late 40s-early 50s. They had massive ground force superiority in Europe at the time, and without an actual visible reminder of what it would look like, I can see the idea of taking on the West and winning being much easier to believe w/o the threat being perceived as real.

Alvis 3.1

Offline elmayerle

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2013, 12:38:33 PM »
There was a novel by a British author, Ronald Clark, if I remember correctly, that had problems cause Trinity to fail, or at least be delayed, and the Allies ended up trying to avoid going with the invasion of the Home Islands by using UK-developed bioweapons.  Things got interesting after that, especially when the re-done Trinity worked perfectly.

Offline Nexus1171

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2013, 09:15:45 AM »
Alvis 3.1

I never actually considered that possibility.  I figured they'd have been used as a deterrent (admittedly if they're secret, they wouldn't be known as a deterrent)


Elmayerle

Yikes... bioweapons are a level worse than nukes.  You have to be really crazy to drop one of those.

Offline Nexus1171

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2013, 07:27:26 AM »
So as a consensus: Do you think it would have made the large scale use of nukes inevitable later on?

Offline Alvis 3.1

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2013, 12:05:47 PM »
Inevitable? no, you can never tell what leaders will do. Ever.

It might have led to an exchange between two nuclear armed countries, likely the US and the USSR in the 50s, maybe. But who knows? Maybe the non-use would have allowed the US to build up a decent stockpile, obliterate some small, annoying country (North Korea or Cuba perhaps) and become an international pariah, having committed a genocide never seen before.

or maybe, the space aliens that never have shown themselves in the Real World show up and make us into their lunch meats, because we didn't have atomic weapons to defend ourselves in the numbers that they truly fear.

Or maybe the Russians develop WAY more nukes than the US does (Like 30 or so) by the early 50s, and uses them to blackmail the US into leaving Europe, and then the USSR slowly takes over the NATO countries by covert and not so covert means, as the US descends into McCarthyism Times 1000 Paranoia. Canada becomes the new DMZ. :(

Or, maybe the UK and France team up to make nukes along with the rest of the Western Europeans, as the US isn't there with boatloads of them. Proliferation spreads nukes to almost every country and we achieve true peace due to MAD being complete and total. Both the USSR and the US return to their agricultural roots, and we now today live in a world of fields and waving grain crops, and NO INTERNET!!!!!!  OMG!!!!

Or maybe the US decides to show the world excatly how bad the nukes can be after a long, terrible and bloody campaign to take the Japanese home islands, and blows Tokyo off the face of the Earth in a series of "tests". Worldwide opinion is one of horror, quickly escalating to sheer horror when the last and most powerful tests awakens a giant lizard, that proceeds to stomp pretty much everything flat in it's path, even Raymond Burr.


or, little Jimmy wakes up screaming, realising the atomic bomb in the pit was just a dream, and there are no Martians pretending to be his parents.


It's "What-if", not "For Sure". We'll never know for sure.

Alvis 3.1
« Last Edit: October 13, 2013, 12:07:57 PM by Alvis 3.1 »

Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2013, 12:45:24 PM »
All hail the God of Frustration!!!

Offline Nexus1171

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2013, 11:03:07 AM »
Alvis 3.1

Quote
Inevitable? no, you can never tell what leaders will do. Ever.

Quote
It might have led to an exchange between two nuclear armed countries, likely the US and the USSR in the 50s, maybe.
Would you agree or disagree that if we didn't use the bomb in 1945, most likely it would have remained a secret and thus would not have been used as a deterrent?

Quote
Maybe the non-use would have allowed the US to build up a decent stockpile, obliterate some small, annoying country (North Korea or Cuba perhaps) and become an international pariah, having committed a genocide never seen before.
That would be bad, and could result in nations banding together to protect themselves from us: They could devote almost all their available resources to make bombs that could be used on us.  Nuclear scientists might very well slip information to other nations out of the fear of what our country is becoming and possibly to balance the power.  Allegedly one spy actually said he gave nuclear secrets to the Soviet Union (Fuchs?) because he believed no one nation should have nuclear capability.

Offline Alvis 3.1

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2013, 11:45:27 PM »
Only if you take the undercoating.

Offline Nexus1171

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Re: US Never Deployed Nuclear Bomb on Japan
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2013, 03:04:30 PM »
Huh?