Author Topic: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?  (Read 17617 times)

Offline Maverick

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #25 on: June 15, 2012, 09:18:38 AM »
Agree wholeheartedly with both of the above comments.  This fad with thinking any history is somehow revsionist by modern thinking is amusing.  Talk to people who were there at the time and you'll find that the 'stereotypes' weren't that, they were what Joe Public on the street, in the military and the like thought, not some imagination of postwar historians.

To suggest that an invasion of the Home Islands would be anything but a bloodbath for both Japanese & Allied alike is naive in the extreme.

Regards,

John
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John

Offline elmayerle

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #26 on: June 15, 2012, 10:41:12 AM »
Don't forget there was an attempted coupe after he'd made the decision to end the war, by some of the more fanatically minded military. Even if he'd made the choice to surrender, all that was needed was a removal of him to keep the fight going.


There's a slightly different scenario:  the coup succeeds and Japan fights on despite the nukes.
That's covered by an AU novel, 1945 by Robert Conroy (note, I can highly recommend all of his AU novels).

Offline dwg

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #27 on: June 16, 2012, 12:45:17 AM »
in reply to a Q on another site .....

apparently (unlike the UK) there was no "home guard" type civil force in Japan to repel invaders -- looks like everything would have been a local ad hoc organisation on the day.



Not quite, but it was very last minute - the Volunteer Fighting Corps was organised in April '45 (and despite the name wasn't voluntary, all adults were members) and there were supposedly training sessions held to familiarise members with weapons. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volunteer_Fighting_Corps (Which notes that the units in Sakhalin, Chosen, Kwangtung and Manchukuo did see action against the Russian offensive). In considering the potential capability of the Volunteer Fighting Corps you probably need to compare it to the Volkssturm, which didn't have much more training.

I wonder if people are being dismissive of the potential for civilian resistance because they aren't entirely familiar with Japanese culture. There was a long tradition that women of the Samurai class should be capable of defending their homes, with several famous female warriors. The naginata was particularly favoured as a suitable weapon for a woman, to the point that even once culture had shifted away from Samurai influence naginata training was part of the girls' physical education curriculum from 1912. Equally Jukenjutsu - bayonet fighting - had been systemized and was heavily focussed on in the military. Handing  a spear to someone who has never held one before is difficult to take too seriously, hand a spear to someone who has been wielding a polearm since school, or to a veteran who spent more time practising bayonet fighting than anything else, and suddenly you have to treat them with rather more respect. Times and technology had changed, but the cultural influences were still there - essentially you have a culture in which Joan of Arc would have been seen as an example to live up to, rather than an anomaly.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2012, 01:07:40 AM by dwg »

Offline GTX_Admin

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #28 on: June 16, 2012, 04:00:05 AM »
This fad with thinking any history is somehow revsionist by modern thinking is amusing.  Talk to people who were there at the time and you'll find that the 'stereotypes' weren't that, they were what Joe Public on the street, in the military and the like thought, not some imagination of postwar historians.

Though the other side of this argument is that modern day historians might have access to far more information of what was actually going on from all sides of a particular conflict and thus might be able to cast a better light on things.  whereas the people you might talk to only have their limited perspective.  An example of this relevant to this discussion might be the fact that we now know that the Japanese were indeed trying to find ways to end the conflict at the time (the previously mentioned contact with the Russians) whereas, the average person at the time might have assumed that they would fight to the last man/women/child.  Note that this is not revisionist thinking, just a highlighting of the differing perspectives.

Anyway, back to speculating about scenarios and developing concepts.

Maybe we would have seen this scenario:

Republic F-12 Rainbows escorted by Boeing F8Bs...
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Offline Tophe

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #29 on: July 10, 2012, 12:13:13 PM »
Another possibility would have been to give up the requirement for unconditional surrender. Today we are told that negotiation (in Israel) is mandatory for a fair peace, why not applying it at that time? Why Europe had been allowed to conquer the World but not Japan? Millions of casualties for racist unfairness, I disagree. You may build a 1946 Japanese Sturmovik yes, but I dislike this war all.

Offline AGRA

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2012, 12:59:53 PM »
Another possibility would have been to give up the requirement for unconditional surrender. Today we are told that negotiation (in Israel) is mandatory for a fair peace, why not applying it at that time?

By that rationale why didn’t the allies negotiate a ‘fair peace’ with the Nazis? The Arab-Israeli example has nothing to do with WWII and the Nazi and Imperial Japanese aggressions.

Another Why Europe had been allowed to conquer the World but not Japan? Millions of casualties for racist unfairness, I disagree.

Europe was never allowed to conquer the world. They did it when there was no one able to stop them. Also while European conquest may have inflicted lots of direct casualties there are literally billions of people who have had a chance at life thanks to European suppression of tribal societies (by far the most violent type of society humans have ever lived in) and the distribution of modern medicine and agriculture. The Japanese offered no such benefit to the societies they conquered and were in actuality the worst and most oppressive colonial masters the world has ever seen.

By the way racism is not a difference in race but the allocation of a intrinsic characteristic to racial groups to place them into a hierarchy. The Japanese Imperial society had been overwhelming proven in the 1930s and 40s to be an immense danger to the world and human species so had to be destroyed by chemical or atomic explosives.

Offline Tophe

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2012, 01:19:45 PM »
I disagree, but this is turning political and I think I should shut up. Sorry.

Offline AGRA

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2012, 02:02:37 PM »
I disagree, but this is turning political and I think I should shut up. Sorry.

How can it be political? This isn’t about left vs right or gold standard vs silver, etc. I would be more than happy to read your opinions. I love history and discussing it, which is why I am interested in ‘what if’.

Offline finsrin

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2012, 03:54:01 PM »
If I was calling the moves.  For a short simple answer.
After Iwo Jima and Okinawa minimize landings and land fighting.
Blockade - and keep tightening that noose.  Everything from row boats on up gets blasted.  Sailing or not.
Bomb and strafe anything but Palace and hospitals.  Delayed detonation bombs hamper repair efforts.
Napalm crops, livestock, same for forests in dry season.
As bombers and fighters from ETO arrive, the intensity increases and defenses decrease.
Battleships, cruisers, destroyers blast all that they can reach.  PT boats, PGMs and such land sabatoge parties.
Masatake Okumiya and Jiro Horikoshi in the 1950's wrote about defenses and economic/industrial activity crumbling as was in 1945.
Also, industry took a big hit from the 1944 earthquake.

Offline Tophe

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2012, 05:51:13 PM »
I would be more than happy to read your opinions. I love history and discussing it, which is why I am interested in ‘what if’.
My opinion is different: I dislike History, that is why I prefer what-if World
http://www.kristofmeunier.fr/uwo.htm
Now I let you with War to Japan 1946. Bye.

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Re: What if Manhattan Project did not exist?
« Reply #35 on: July 11, 2012, 02:26:17 AM »
I disagree, but this is turning political and I think I should shut up. Sorry.


How can it be political? This isn’t about left vs right or gold standard vs silver, etc. I would be more than happy to read your opinions. I love history and discussing it, which is why I am interested in ‘what if’.


I would be more than happy to read your opinions. I love history and discussing it, which is why I am interested in ‘what if’.
My opinion is different: I dislike History, that is why I prefer what-if World
http://www.kristofmeunier.fr/uwo.htm
Now I let you with War to Japan 1946. Bye.


Guys maybe it is just easier to let this one go for now.   :))
All hail the God of Frustration!!!

You can't outrun Death forever.
But you can make the Bastard work for it.